When, therefore, the depreciation of the currency has lasted long
enough for society to adjust itself to the new values, Deflation is
even worse than Inflation. Both are “unjust” and disappoint reasonable
expectation. But whereas Inflation, by easing the burden of national
debt and stimulating enterprise, has a little to throw into the other
side of the balance, Deflation has nothing.
2. _The restoration of a currency to its pre-war gold value enhances a
country’s financial prestige and promotes future confidence._
Where a country can hope to restore its pre-war parity at an early
date, this argument cannot be neglected. This might be said of Great
Britain, Holland, Sweden, Switzerland, and (perhaps) Spain, but of
no other European country. The argument cannot be extended to those
countries which, even if they could raise somewhat the value of their
legal-tender money, could not possibly restore it to its old value.
It is of the essence of the argument that the _exact_ pre-war parity
should be recovered. It would not make much difference to the financial
prestige of Italy whether she stabilised the lira at 100 to the £
sterling or at 60; and it would be much better for her prestige to
stabilise it definitely at 100 than to let it fluctuate between 60 and
100.
This argument is limited, therefore, to those countries the gold value
of whose currencies is within (say) 5 or 10 per cent of their former
value. Its force in these cases depends, I think, upon what answer
we give to the problem discussed below, namely, whether we intend
to pin ourselves in the future, as in the past, to an unqualified
gold standard. If we still prefer such a standard to any available
alternative, and if future “confidence” in our currency is to depend
not on the stability of its purchasing power but on the fixity of its
gold-value, then it may be worth our while to stand the racket of
Deflation to the extent of 5 or 10 per cent. This view is in accordance
with that expressed by Ricardo in analogous circumstances a hundred
years ago.[43] If, on the other hand, we decide to aim for the future
at stability of the price level rather than at a fixed parity with
gold, in that case _cadit quaestio_.
[43] See below, p. 153.
In any case this argument does not affect our main conclusion, that
the right policy for countries of which the currency has suffered a
prolonged and severe depreciation is to _devaluate_, and to fix the
value of the currency at that figure in the neighbourhood of the
existing value to which commerce and wages are adjusted.
3. _If the gold value of a country’s currency can be increased,
labour will profit by a reduced cost of living, foreign goods will be
obtainable cheaper, and foreign debts fixed in terms of gold_ (e.g. _to
the United States) will be discharged with less effort._
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