1. _To leave the gold value of a country’s currency at the low level
to which war has driven it is an injustice to the_ rentier _class and
to others whose income is fixed in terms of currency, and practically
a breach of contract; whilst to restore its value would meet a debt of
honour._
The injury done to pre-war holders of fixed interest-bearing stocks is
beyond dispute. Real justice, indeed, might require the restoration
of the purchasing power, and not merely the gold value, of their
money incomes, a measure which no one in fact proposes; whilst nominal
justice has not been infringed, since these investments were not in
gold bullion but in the legal tender of the realm. Nevertheless, if
this class of investors could be dealt with separately, considerations
of equity and the expedience of satisfying reasonable expectation would
furnish a strong case.
But this is not the actual situation. The vast issues of War Loans have
swamped the pre-war holdings of fixed interest-bearing stocks, and
society has largely adjusted itself to the new situation. To restore
the value of pre-war holdings by Deflation means enhancing at the
same time the value of war and post-war holdings, and thereby raising
the total claims of the _rentier_ class not only beyond what they are
entitled to, but to an intolerable proportion of the total income of
the community. Indeed justice, rightly weighed, comes down on the
other side. Much the greater proportion of the money contracts still
outstanding were entered into when money was worth more nearly what
it is worth now than what it was worth in 1913. Thus, in order to do
justice to a minority of creditors, a great injustice would be done to
a great majority of debtors.
This aspect of the matter has been admirably argued by Professor Irving
Fisher.[42] We forget, he says, that not all contracts require the
same adjustment in order to secure justice, and that while we are
debating whether we ought to deflate to secure ideal justice for those
who made contracts on old price levels, new contracts are constantly
being made at the new price levels. An estimate of the volume of
contracts now outstanding, classified according to their age, would
show that some contracts are a day old, some are a month old, some are
a year old, some are a decade old, and some are a century old, the
great mass, however, being of very recent origin. Consequently the
average, or centre of gravity, of the total existing indebtedness is
probably always somewhat near the present. Before the war, Professor
Fisher estimated, very roughly, that contracts in the United States
were on the average about one year old.
[42] In his article “Devaluation versus Deflation,” published
in the eleventh _Manchester Guardian_ Reconstruction
Supplement (Dec. 7, 1922).
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account