After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
In conducting these discussions, Milosevic's aim is two-fold. Divide et
impera - he intends to do his best to inflame the nascent internecine
civil war about to erupt in Kosovo. By offering goodies to both camps,
Serbia pits them against one another. By being inconsistent and
unpredictable (remember Serbia's refugees policy?) - the Serbs enhance
a Kosovar personality disorder. Dazed by the arbitrariness and
capriciousness of a vicious neighbour - the Kosovars will lash at each
other in an effort to offload their frustration and aggression.
Lucky Serbia. Its infrastructure all but eradicated - it will enjoy the
best and latest replacements courtesy a multitude of international
financial institutions and NGOs. Materially revamped, nationally
revived, militarily vindicated, an invigorated power that withstood the
mightiest alliance in history - Serbia is in an excellent position to
emerge as an important, nay, indispensable, regional, pivotal player.
It can have its choice. In Rugova it will find a genteel, compliant,
respectable and submissive partner. In Thaci - a fellow bully. Serbia
can conduct business with both. As it tramples over internal dissent,
suppresses Montenegro and tightens its grip on its minorities - Serbia
will strive to split Kosovo. It will be content with the mineral-rich,
historical north. Thaci will be content with any kind of foothold, a
stepping-stone on the way to a Greater Albania. There are grounds for
doing business and business will be done, indeed.
Poor Kosova. Lucky Serbia. With such opponents, one need not have
friends. And, in the background, NATO stumbles on into its worst
nightmare, into an apocalyptic tapestry of exploding mines, KLA sniper
fire and mortar attacks, Serb revanchism, material devastation, mass
starvation and geopolitical destabilization. It is this war: gradual,
nerve wrecking, multi-annual, expensive, replete with body bags and
horror scenes - that will do NATO in. It is the end of NATO, only it
does not know it. It has contracted the humanitarian cancer and its
days are numbered.
Milosevic is smiling. He won the war. Completely. And the world has yet
to learn it.
Post Scriptum
It is ever so easy and rational to disregard the above scenario. It is
abrupt, illogical, paradoxical. The Serbs and Milosevic are surely the
KLA's worst enemies. No peace - even one mediated by a confluence of
interests - can blossom among the ruins of coexistence and trust
shredded. A KLA supported by the Serbs against NATO is as outlandish as
an Iraq supported by the USA against Israel.
But the Balkan is a region characterized by its fluid alliances and
structures. Rebecca West, in her masterpiece, "Black Lamb and Grey
Falcon" tells of an alliance no less unholy and no more improbable than
a KLA-Milosevic one (pages 840-1 in the 1994 Penguin edition):
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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