After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The KLA stands to lose everything as a result of the latest bout of
peacemaking. It is supposed to be "decommissioned" IRA-style, disarmed
("demilitarised" in the diplomatic argot) and effectively disbanded.
The KLA's political clout rested on its ever-growing arsenal and body
of volunteers. Yet volunteers have a strange habit of going back whence
they came once a conflict is over. And the weapons are to be
surrendered. Devoid of these two pillars of political might - Thaci may
find himself unemployed, a former self-declared Prime Minister of a
shadow government in Albanian exile. Rugova has the coffers, filled to
the brim with tens of millions of US dollars and DM raised from the
Albanian Diaspora worldwide. Money talks, KLA walks. Bad for the KLA.
Having tasted power, having met cher Albright on a regular basis,
having conversed with Tony Blair and Robertson and even Clinton via
expensive high tech gadgets - Thaci is not likely to compromise on a
second rate appointment in a Rugova led administration.
And the bad news is that he doesn't have to. Bolstered by a
short-sighted and panicky NATO, the KLA post-bellum is not what it used
to be ante-bellum. It is well equipped. It is well financed. Its ranks
have swelled. It has been transformed from an agglomeration of
desperadoes - to a military guerrilla force to be reckoned with. Even
the Serbs found that out at a dear price.
With the Serb pullout from Kosovo, Serbia is no longer the KLA'a enemy
of choice. The KLA has seen the enemy and it is NATO. The pro-Rugova
demonstrations in the camps (despite Rugova's Quisling show with
Milosevic and his refusal to explain his motives and to adopt a stern
position against the Serbs) - sounded loud and clear. Thaci picked up
the signal.
No Kosovar autonomy can do without Serbia. Kosovo is connected to
Serbia by way of infrastructure. All its trade is with Yugoslavia. It
is absolutely dependent on Serbia for its energy needs. Rugova knows
this. Thaci knows this. And Milosevic knows this. Only NATO pretends
that Kosova can survive as an independent, economically viable entity.
It cannot. It is a part of Serbia, willy-nilly and it will continue to
be so. Rugova and Thaci will be positioning themselves accordingly and
will seek the favours of the only regional force that really matters:
Serbia. Rumour has it that discussion have already commenced in Prague
between Yugoslav low-level officials and Rugova and Thaci
representatives of their competing administrations.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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