After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
In October 1998, the unreformed communists of the SDSM - the Socialists
- lost the elections in Macedonia by a wide margin to an improbable
coalition. It consisted of the VMRO - fervent nationalists with
Bulgarian roots, headed by the poet-politician Ljubco Georgievski - and
the Democratic alternative (DA). The latter was a hastily assembled
party headed by Vasil Tupurkovski, a pro-US former member of the old
Yugoslav nomenclature. DA enjoyed grassroots support especially by
young professionals, businessmen and liberals. It imported Western
campaigning techniques and made bold promises to revitalize and
energize the economy.
When the news of the unequivocal victory of the VMRO-DA coalition
arrived, the nation was swept by an unprecedented wave of enthusiasm,
optimism and joy. Unprecedented because the young nation's history (its
independence was declared in 1991) provided it with very little reason
to be joyful. Its main trading partners were either boycotted by the
world (the rump Yugoslavia) or themselves boycotted Macedonia - Greece
in the wake of outlandish dispute regarding Macedonia's official name
(hence the impossible FYROM) and Bulgaria because it refused to allow
the use of the Macedonian language in bilateral documents. The economy
collapsed, unemployment soared, investment all but vanished, corruption
erupted and the Albanian ethnic minority became restive.
Macedonia was laid to economic waste by powers beyond its control. Its
entrepreneurial inhabitants - fresh from 500 years of Ottoman training
followed by 50 years of communism - resorted to smuggling (from Greece
to Serbia through the Vardar river) and established a reasonably
functioning underground economy. The IMF and the Central Bank
maintained macro-economic stability (following years of hyperinflation)
at an excruciating social cost. Trade was liberalized, inflation tamed,
the currency was made freely convertible and the exchange rate eerily
sustained (rather, suspended).
But under-currents seethed below the tattered facade. Disenchantment
with the ruling classes and their mafia-like structure increased
dramatically. Intricate webs of village and family loyalties were
tested to the limit in affairs such as TAT, the collapse of a savings
bank in a pyramid scheme in which some top level officials were
implicated. Cronyism and nepotism led to the legalized robbery of the
assets of the state through bogus privatisation schemes. Some people
grew exceedingly rich - others became inordinately poor. The tension
was palpable. The youth felt trapped, facing a dead end future. Many
emigrated.
Albanian nationalism was introduced into this explosive vapour in
1997-8. It existed long before (the KLA, for instance, became a force
to reckoned with as early as 1993). It constituted the main concern of
the ethnic Macedonians (of Slav extract). People spoke ominously of an
Armageddon to be waged between the two ethnicities.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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