After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The two communities exist separately. There are no inter-marriages,
very few common business ventures and the Albanians either live in
ghettos within the main cities - or in Albanian dominated cities of
their own (such as Gostivar and Tetovo) in western Macedonia, across
the border from Kosovo. The ground was shaking long before 1997. The
mutual hatred, loathing and, above all, fear of domination and cultural
subjugation were real and under a very thin veneer of civility. The
inclusion of a national Albanian party (there are three) in the
government was greeted as a welcome omen and respite. But this was not
to be.
The ethnic Macedonian's main fear is that the Albanians are aiming to
recreate a "Greater Albania" comprising the current Albania, Kosova and
Western Macedonia. A natural Islamic axis (Albania-Bosnia-Central Asia)
would then form and threaten the Slav peoples wherever they are (Serbs,
Russians, Bulgarians). What started as the normal friction between two
ethnic groups in close physical proximity ended as a mythical
re-enactment of the Islamic (Ottoman) invasion of Europe in the 14th
century. A nightmare revived fraught with the fears of an economically
languishing Christian-Orthodox, Slav, Byzantine civilization. A very
concrete issue of land and autonomy assumed the dimensions of a cosmic
clash between the titans of religion.
Officially, the Albanians constitute 23% of the population in
Macedonia. But Albanian did not take well to what they regarded as
coercion: the population census. They refused to be counted and evaded
the census takers - to their great detriment. As a result, their
numbers are severely understated. It is safe to say that well over ONE
THIRD of the population was of Albanian origin long BEFORE the wave of
refugees swept over this 25,000 square kilometres country. Should one
third of the refugees be absorbed by Macedonia - another 80,000
Albanians - the Albanian population stands to constitute more than 40%
of the population. The Albanians marry younger, have double the number
of children of the ethnic Macedonian (it is a much younger population)
and almost never divorce. Their families are very cohesive and tend to
stick together geographically. In the year 2015 - the majority of the
population in Macedonia will be of Albanian origin, if this trend
continues unperturbed and one third of the refugees remain. In 1912
Kosovo had a sizeable Serb majority. In 1972 this was no longer true.
The ethnic Macedonians are appalled by this demography. They are
scared. They do not believe that they can co-exist with the Albanians.
Stereotypes abound: the Albanians are backward, criminal elements,
illiterate, violent and expansive, say the Macedonians. And their main
goal in life - for which no sacrifice is too great - is to seize land
from their neighbours. Kosova is a first step - the Macedonians are
convinced - Western Macedonia is next, a civil war is imminent.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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