After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
In an effort to overcome the pernicious effects of inflation,
governments liberalize, deregulate and open their economies to
competition. Firms innovate and streamline. Efficiency, productivity
and competitiveness are the buzzwords of this phase. As trade barriers
fall, cross border capital flows (=investment) increase, productivity
gains and new products are introduced - the upward price spiral is
halted and contained. The same money buys better products (more
reliable, more functions, more powerful). The same wages generate more
products. This is technological deflation. It is beneficial to the
economy in that it frees economic resources and encourages their
efficient allocation. Real incomes rise and generate increased demand
and production.
Inevitably, technical deflation leads to a restraint in the general
price level. Increased consumption (both public and private) coupled
with moderate asset price inflation prevents an outright monetary
deflation (=a downward spiral in the general price level). Inflation is
kept to sustainable levels. This phase is known as "disinflation". It
is a transitory phase. The transition from hyperinflation or high
inflation to a supportable level of inflation is a matter of one or two
decades. This period is bound to be shortened by the revolutions in
information, communications and transportation technologies. In fact,
the whole cycle is hastened due to the more rapid dissemination of
information. It is the availability and accessibility of information,
which determines the values of important parameters such as the
equilibrium general price level and other parameters of expectations
(such as equity prices). The more information is available more readily
- the more efficient the markets and the shorter the cycles. This
enhances the false perception of instability inherent in modern
markets. But speed does not necessarily a imply lack of stability. On
the contrary, the faster and more violent the adjustments in the market
mechanism - the more efficient it is.
The psychological well-being and assurance brought on by disinflation
generate demand for assets, especially yielding assets (such as real
estate or financial assets). The more certain the future value of
streams of income, the more open the economic environment, the shorter
the economic cycle, the more frequent and rapid the economic
interactions - the more valuable assets become. Assets are mainly
stores of expectations regarding future values. An assets bubble is
created when the current value (=price) of money is low and the future
value of money is certain and likely to grow through stable or
decreasing prices. Stock exchanges, real estate, and financial
transactions - all balloon out of proportion in a kind of irrational
exuberance.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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