After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
All bubbles burst in the end - and so do these assets bubbles. This is
the fifth phase. It is crucial because it signifies the termination of
the bull part of the cycle. The prices of assets collapse
precipitously. There are no buyers - only sellers. Firms find it
impossible to raise money because their obligations (commercial paper
and bonds) are rendered valueless. A credit crunch ensues. Investment
halts.
The collapse of assets bubbles generates asset price deflation. The
psychological counterpart of this deflation is the disappearance of the
"wealth effect" and its replacement by a "thrift effect". This
influences consumption, inventories, sales, employment and other
important angles of the real economy. If not countered by monetary and
fiscal means - a lowering of interest rates, a fiscal Keynesian
stimulus, an increase in money supply targets - a monetary deflation
might set in. Admittedly, a full-fledged deflation is rare. More
frequent are a recession, a slump, a credit crunch, a slowdown, a
growth recession and other less exotic variants. It is also possible to
have differentiated or discriminatory deflation. This is a deflation in
certain sectors of the economy or in certain territories of the globe -
but not in others. In any case, a monetary deflation is a monstrous,
venomous economic beast. Due to reversed expectations (that prices will
continue to go down), people postpone their consumption and spending.
Real interest rates skyrocket because in an environment of negative
inflation, even a zero interest rate is high in real terms. Investment
and production slump - inventories shoot up, further depressing prices.
The decline in output is accompanied by widespread bankruptcies and by
a steep increase in unemployment. The real value of debt increases.
Coupled with declining prices of assets, it leads to bank failures as a
result of debts gone sour. It is a self-perpetuating state of affairs
and it calls for the implementation of the seventh and last phase of
the cycle.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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