After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The two phenomena should be accorded a different treatment. While
long-term capital flows should be completely liberalized, encouraged
and welcomed - the short term, "hot money" type should be controlled
and even discouraged. The introduction of fiscally oriented capital
controls (as Chile has implemented) is one possibility. The less
attractive Malaysian model springs to mind. It is less attractive
because it penalizes both the short term and the long-term financial
players. But it is clear that an important and integral part of the new
International Financial Architecture MUST be the control of speculative
money in pursuit of ever-higher yields. There is nothing inherently
wrong with high yields - but the capital markets provide yields
connected to economic depression and to price collapses through the
mechanism of short selling and through the usage of certain
derivatives. This aspect of things must be neutered or at least
countered.
The second lesson is the important role that central banks and other
financial authorities play in the precipitation of financial crises -
or in their prolongation. Financial bubbles and asset price inflation
are the result of euphoric and irrational exuberance - said the
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States, the
legendary Mr. Greenspan and who can dispute this? But the question that
was delicately sidestepped was: WHO is responsible for financial
bubbles? Expansive monetary policies, well-timed signals in the
interest rates markets, liquidity injections, currency interventions,
and international salvage operations - are all co-ordinated by central
banks and by other central or international institutions. Official
INACTION is as conducive to the inflation of financial bubbles as is
official ACTION. By refusing to restructure the banking system, to
introduce appropriate bankruptcy procedures, corporate transparency and
good corporate governance, by engaging in protectionism and
isolationism, by avoiding the implementation of anti competition
legislation - many countries have fostered the vacuum within which
financial crises breed.
The third lesson is that international financial institutions can be of
some help - when not driven by political or geopolitical considerations
and when not married to a dogma. Unfortunately, these are the rare
cases. Most IFIs - notably the IMF and, to a lesser extent, the World
Bank - are both politicised and doctrinaire. It is only lately and
following the recent mega-crisis in Asia, that IFIs began to "reinvent"
themselves, their doctrines and their recipes. This added conceptual
and theoretical flexibility led to better results. It is always better
to tailor a solution to the needs of the client. Perhaps this should be
the biggest evolutionary step:
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