After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The first fallacy is to assume that all forms of utility are reducible
to one another or to money terms. Thus, the values attached to all
utilities are expressed in monetary terms. This is wrong. Some people
prefer leisure, or freedom, or predictability to expected money. This
is the very essence of risk aversion: a trade off between the utility
of predictability (absence or minimization of risk) and the expected
utility of money. In other words, people have many utility functions
running simultaneously - or, at best, one utility function with many
variables and coefficients. This is why taxi drivers in New York cease
working in a busy day, having reached a pre-determined income target:
the utility function of their money equals the utility function of
their leisure.
How can these coefficients (and the values of these variables) be
determined? Only by engaging in extensive empirical research. There is
no way for any theory or "explanation" to predict these values. We have
yet to reach the stage of being able to quantify, measure and
numerically predict human behaviour and personality (=the set of
adaptive traits and their interactions with changing circumstances).
That economics is a branch of psychology is becoming more evident by
the day. It would do well to lose its mathematical pretensions and
adopt the statistical methods of its humbler relative.
The second fallacy is the assumption underlying both rational and
behavioural economics that human nature is an "object" to be analysed
and "studied", that it is static and unchanged. But, of course, humans
change inexorably. This is the only fixed feature of being human:
change. Some changes are unpredictable, even in deterministic
principle. Other changes are well documented. An example of the latter
class of changes in the learning curve. Humans learn and the more they
learn the more they alter their behaviour. So, to obtain any meaningful
data, one has to observe behaviour in time, to obtain a sequence of
reactions and actions. To isolate, observe and manipulate environmental
variables and study human interactions. No snapshot can approximate a
video sequence where humans are concerned.
Return
Public Procurement and very Private Benefits
In every national budget, there is a part called "Public Procurement".
This is the portion of the budget allocated to purchasing services and
goods for the various ministries, authorities and other arms of the
executive branch. It was the famous management consultant, Parkinson,
who once wrote that government officials are likely to approve a
multi-billion dollar nuclear power plant much more speedily that they
are likely to authorize a hundred dollar expenditure on a bicycle
parking device. This is because everyone came across 100-dollar
situations in real life - but precious few had the fortune to expend
with billions of USD.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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