After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
The world is debating the Solow Paradox. Named after the Nobel laureate
in economics, it was stated by him thus: "You can see the computer age
everywhere these days, except in the productivity statistics." The
venerable economic magazine, "The Economist" in its issue dated July
24th, quotes the no less venerable Professor Robert Gordon ("one of
America's leading authorities on productivity") - p.20: "...the
productivity performance of the manufacturing sector of the United
States economy since 1995 has been abysmal rather than admirable. Not
only has productivity growth in non-durable manufacturing decelerated
in 1995-9 compared to 1972-95, but productivity growth in durable
manufacturing stripped of computers has decelerated even more."
What should be held true - the hype or the dismal statistics? The
answer to this question is of crucial importance to economies in
transition. If investment in IT (information technology) actually
RETARDS growth - then it should be avoided, at least until a
functioning marketplace is there to counter its growth suppressing
effects.
The notion that IT retards growth is counter-intuitive. It would seem
that, at the least, computers allow us to do more of the same things
faster. Typing, order processing, inventory management, production
processes, number crunching are all managed more efficiently by
computers. Added efficiency should translate into enhanced
productivity. Put simply, the same number of people can do more,
faster, more cheaply with computers than they can without them. Yet
reality begs to differ.
Two elements are often neglected in considering the beneficial effects
of IT.
The first is that the concept of information technology comprises two
very distinct economic activities: an all-purpose machine (the PC) and
its enabling applications and a medium (the internet). Capital assets
as distinct from media assets are governed by different economic
principles, should be managed differently and be the subject of
different philosophical points of view.
Massive, double digit increases in productivity are feasible in the
manufacturing of computer hardware. The inevitable outcome is an
exponential explosion in computing and networking power. The dual rules
which govern IT - Moore's (a doubling of chip capacity and computing
prowess every 18 months) and Metcalf's (the exponential increase in a
network's processing ability as more computers connect to it) - also
dictate a breathtaking pace of increased productivity in the hardware
cum software aspect of IT. This has been duly detected by Robert Gordon
in his "Has the 'New Economy' rendered the productivity slowdown
obsolete?"
But for this increased productivity to trickle down to the rest of the
economy a few conditions have to be met.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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