After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
It is a momentous event, the consequences of which cannot yet be fully
fathomed. Extrapolating Russian history, it would be reasonable to
expect a backlash in the form of a counterrevolution. A communist
counter-revolution being unlikely - we can expect a fascist-criminal
counter-revolution. But it is as safe to assume that the revolution is
irreversible, setbacks aside. It is irreversible because for the first
time it generated vested interests not only for a select elite - but
also for everyone. Prosperity tends to trickle down and, as it does
(forming a middle class in its wake) - it knows no boundaries of class.
The real revolution has just been completed in Russia, 70 years after
Lenin's death. And all classes are about to win.
The Second Cold War
The outlines of the second cold war have emerged. It is to be fought
between a prosperous, almighty, vainglorious, narcissistic,
self-righteous, contemptuous and increasingly disintegrating USA and an
equally disintegrating China on the economic ascendant.
The second cold war (already in progress) is fought not between foes -
but between partners. The extent of economic interests common to the
two current combatants far exceeds anything achieved in the high
moments of detente between the USA and its previous rival, Russia. This
cold war is about markets and cultural dominance - not sheer,
projected, military prowess. It is a throwback to earlier days of
colonialism and mercantilism and it is laden with historical memories
and sensitivities.
The aims are different, as well. China wishes to force the USA to throw
open the gates of the global marketplace, currently zealously guarded
by the only superpower. The IMF, the World Bank, the WTO are all
believed to be extensions of the American economic clout, put to the
use of its geopolitical interests. Russia forced its way into the G8
but China has much loftier ambitions. It is not in pursuit of
membership in gentlemen's clubs - it aspires to real, raw power. It
wants to carve the world between itself and the West. In short, it
wants to dominate and to export and it wants the West to help it do so.
In return, it promises regional and internal stability and access to
its markets. To convince the West of the quality of its wares, China
demonstrates its capacity to destabilize in various corners of the
world. It transfers weapons technology, support international terrorism
and rogue states and, in general, places formidable obstacles in the
path to Pax Americana, the New World Order.
The Americans regard this as a reasonable deal but they wish to reverse
the cause and the effect. First, they want to gain unhindered access to
the potentially infinite Chinese market and to have the Chinese deliver
the regional and international stability they claim to be able to
deliver. Only then are they willing to contemplate the coveted prize of
graduating to the co-ownership of the world financial and economic
architecture.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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