After the Rain : how the West lost the EastVaknin, Samuel
History
After the Rain : how the West lost the East
Vaknin, Samuel
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-; Europe, Eastern -- Politics and government -- 1989-
China is fighting for legitimacy, recognition, access to markets,
capital and technology and the ability to reshape the world in its
favour. The USA is fighting to check progress of the Chinese on all
these fronts. Such fundamental differences are bound to lead to
conflict - as, indeed, they have.
In this sense, the bombing of the Chinese embassy has been an
auspicious event because it allowed both parties to break through, to
unlock and a deadlock and to make progress towards a fuller integration
of China into the WTO, for instance. It also legitimised the airing of
grievances against the style and conduct of the USA in world affairs.
In short, it was cathartic and useful.
The Demise of the Client States
The concept of the client states is so well entrenched in our
historical consciousness that its demise has been denied and repressed.
There are no longer alliances between powerful political units (such as
the USA) and smaller, dependent, satellites. The kaleidoscopically
shifting interests of the few remaining global powers dictate
geopolitical transigence and ideological transparency. These adaptive
processes lead to a myriad of alliances, forever changing to fit the
needs and interests of the moment or to cater to future contingencies.
Thus, Russia ignores Yugoslavia's pleas for help, China allows the USA,
Japan and South Korea to conduct direct negotiations with North Korea,
America bullies Israel into a settlement with the Palestinians (who
support Iraq), the UK and the USA impose a peace plan on the IRA,
Russia respects an embargo imposed on both Iraq and Yugoslavia and so
on. These are the roots of a truly global order. It is also the death
knell for rogue and "insane" states. Devoid of their patronage, these
countries are gradually tamed by the awesome twin forces of the global
market and international capital and information flows. Iran moderates,
Libya surrenders, Yugoslavia succumbs, the only exception being Iraq.
This is NOT to say that warfare is a thing of the past. On the very
contrary. In the absence of the overwhelmingly restraining impulses and
impositions of the superpowers - ethnic strife, border skirmishes, the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - all are likely to
increase. But these are already affairs of limited importance, confined
to parts of the world of limited importance, and fought amongst people
of ever more limited importance. War marginalizes the warriors because
it takes them out of the circulation of capital, information and goods.
Decoupled from these essential flows, warring parties wither and
shrivel.
The Convergence of Economic and Military Alliances
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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