Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
In the rough way, over any long period of time, this is
approximately true, but it was probably not true in late 1917. Hog
prices at that time were over 200 per cent of the ten-year period,
whereas packers’ manufacturing costs were probably not in excess of 170
per cent of the ten-year period.
It is conceivable that as the packing business becomes even more
centralized and further improvements in the use of by-products are
discovered, it may be possible for packers to sell short-ribs, as an
average of a ten-year period, for a price no more than the cost to them
of 133 pounds of hog flesh. Under conditions as they prevail at present,
however, the 135-pound ratio is approximately correct.
[Illustration:
Illustrating when short-rib sides have been above and below their
ten-year average ratio to live hog prices.
]
The ratio method of determining profits and losses in the manufacture of
various packers’ products is not put forward as an aid in any method of
packing house accounting. It is, however, put forward as a method by
which the consumer and the farmer can discover in a rough way when the
packers are absorbing more than their customary share.
A similar chart worked out for lard gives much the same results, altho
at times the profit and loss of the two products do not always coincide
exactly. For instance, in 1914, lard sold for far less than its normal
ratio during the entire year, whereas ribs sold for slightly more than
their normal ratio. In 1919, lard sold far above its normal ratio and
ribs were below. Similar ratios might be worked out for all the various
hog meats, and also for cattle and the various cuts of beef. What
examination we have made of some of these ratios indicates that the
packers, in their buying of live stock and selling of products, regard
each product as a law unto itself. If there is a large amount of stored
lard on the market, on account of the shutting off of the German demand,
lard prices may be reduced, even tho hog prices are such as to warrant
lard selling at a dollar or two more per hundredweight. On the other
hand, if the Allies at the same time are in the market for ribs, the
prices will be advanced, even tho ribs may be made from hogs at a dollar
or two less per hundredweight. The problem of the packers is to buy as
cheaply as possible and sell as high as possible, in the knowledge that
too wide a spread will invite competition. In the case of hog products,
a loss may be withstood on a rapidly rising market, because the
manufacturing loss will be compensated for by the speculative profit.
This was illustrated during a considerable part of the year 1917, when
most hog products sold at considerably less than their normal ratio, but
when the packers actually made splendid profits, owing to the continual
advance of prices and speculative gain on products on hand.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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