Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
In its simplest form, the ratio method deals with only two products, as
for example, with hogs and corn. As an average of the ten Januarys
extending from 1907 to 1916, No. 2 corn on the Chicago market sold for
59.9 cents a bushel, and heavy hogs on the same market sold for $7 per
hundredweight. In other words, as an average of this ten-year period, it
has required the value of 11.7 bushels of corn to equal in value one
hundred pounds of heavy hog flesh. In the specific month of January,
1907, corn was 41.6 cents per bushel. The corn price of hogs was 11.7
times 41.6 cents, or $4.87. The actual price of hogs in January, 1907,
was $6.60. Actual hogs sold for $1.73 above the customary corn-hog
ratio. In January of 1908, with corn at 58.5 cents a bushel, the corn
price of hogs would be 11.7 times 58.5, or $6.84. The actual price was
$4.45, or $2.39 below the ratio price. The ratio for February is
different from the ratio for January, but once a set of ratios is
secured for each of the twelve months of the year, it is easily possible
to work out charts showing month by month the periods of time when hogs
were selling relatively higher than their customary ratio to corn, and
when they were selling relatively lower.
It is absolutely necessary to work ratios month by month, or week by
week, in the case of all products which have a seasonal swing. Nearly
all agricultural products are cheap in the fall of the year. Some
products begin weakening sooner than others; for instance, oats and
wheat weaken sooner than corn or hogs.
A genuinely scientific method of applying the ratio method to hog prices
would also take into consideration that hogs are to some extent made out
of tankage, pasture and labor, as well as corn. Of course, these things
vary in value in a rough way, in just about the same way as corn prices,
and for practical purposes, the ratio between hogs and corn is probably
exact enough.
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