Agricultural pricesWallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Science
Agricultural prices
Wallace, Henry A. (Henry Agard)
Agriculture -- Statistics; Farm produce; Prices
A business panic may come on, as in October of 1907, and as a result the
demand for meats of all kinds may shrink. Corn prices, the cost of
producing hogs, may stay up, as was the case in 1907–1908, but hog
prices nevertheless are reduced. A study of the hog market for many
years past reveals the fact that the immediate price-making force is
“supply and demand,” and that “cost of production” has no influence
whatever on prices except in the long swings.
The supply-and-demand theory of prices is well understood by nearly
every one. Supposedly, actual prices at any given moment represent an
equilibrium of supply and demand. The next day larger supplies come in,
and the demand remains unchanged; naturally the price declines to a
point where supply and demand are again equal. There is a presumption in
the minds of many people that supply and demand interact with almost
mathematical accuracy to determine prices. In the long run, possibly
this is true. The day-by-day price, however, is as much a matter of
psychology as mathematics.
This brings us to a consideration of those more intangible price forces
which may be grouped together under the head of strategy. In January and
in August of 1919, we had excellent examples of the use of strategy as a
price-making force. In both months, certain powerful interests worked in
conjunction with the newspapers to modify public psychology in the
interests of lower prices. Day after day, the lower price bombardment
was directed against the farmers by the daily press and the politicians.
Prices declined in spite of the fact that the supply was greatly
curtailed and the potential demand was as great as ever. In the corn
market, receipts were exceedingly light at Chicago during both price
raids. Hog receipts in August of 1919, when prices dropped $5 per
hundredweight, were the smallest of the year. But government officials
constantly talked about the vast army supply of bacon. As a matter of
fact, the quantity of pork products put on the market by the government
was not enough to account for much of a drop in hog prices. But the
publicity which went with the government announcements, combined with
determined pressure on the speculative markets in this country and
abroad, sufficed to lower prices tremendously in defiance of any
mathematical expression of supply and demand.
[Illustration:
Solid line shows exports from U. S. Dotted line, ocean freights from
New York to Liverpool. Ocean freights are low in summer when exports
are low, and high in the fall when exports are heavy.
]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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