That Mr. Burke alludes to such fluctuation is, however, evident, from what that fanciful but deeply-read man says, immediately after: "We have seen some states which have spent their vigour at their commencement. Some have [end of page #vii] blazed out in their glory a little before their extinction. The meridian of some has been the most splendid. Others, and they the greatest number, have fluctuated, and experienced, at different periods of their existence, a great variety of fortune. The death of a man at a critical juncture, his disgust, his retreat, his disgrace, have brought innumerable calamities on a whole nation; a common soldier, a child, a girl, at the door of an inn, have changed the face of fortune, and almost of nature." From this it is abundantly evident, that the theory he wished for, but despaired of ever establishing, was one that would explain such effects; but the object of this Inquiry is totally different. When the Romans were in their vigour, their city was besieged by the Gauls, and saved by an animal of proverbial stupidity; but this could not have happened when Attila was under the walls, and the energy of the citizens was gone. The taking or saving the city, in the first instance, would have been equally accidental, and the consequences of short duration; but, in the latter days, the fall of Rome was owing to _PERMANENT_ causes, and the effect has been without a remedy. It is, then, only concerning the permanent causes, (that is to say, causes that are constantly acting, and produce [end of page #viii] permanent effects) that we mean to inquire; and, even with regard to those, it is not expected to establish a theory that will be applicable, with certainty, to the preservation of a state, but, merely to establish one, which may serve as a safe guide on a subject, the importance of which is great, beyond calculation. There remains but one other consideration in reply to this, and that is, whether states have, necessarily, by the constitution and nature of things, the same periods of infancy, manhood, and decrepitude, that are found in the individuals that compose them? Mr. Burke thinks they have not; and, indeed, if they had, the following Inquiry would be of no sort of utility. It is of no importance to seek for means of preventing what must of necessity come to pass: but, if the word necessity is changed for tendency or propensity, then it becomes an Inquiry deserving attention, and, as all states have risen, flourished, and fallen, there can be no dispute with the regard to their tendency to do so. However much, at first sight, Mr. Burke's opinion may appear to militate against such an Inquiry, when duly considered, it will be found, not only to approve of the end, but to point out the manner in which the inquiry ought to be conducted; namely, by consulting history. [end of page #ix]