An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Oeconomy (Vol. 1 of 2): Being an essay on the science of domestic policy in free nations. In which are particularly considered population, agriculture, trade, industry, money, coin, interest, circulation, banks, exchange, public credit, and taxesSteuart, James, Sir
History
An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Oeconomy (Vol. 1 of 2): Being an essay on the science of domestic policy in free nations. In which are particularly considered population, agriculture, trade, industry, money, coin, interest, circulation, banks, exchange, public credit, and taxes
Steuart, James, Sir
Economics
I find error concealed every where under general propositions. The
children of the poor, says one, thrive better than those of the rich. If
it be so, it ought not to be so in common reason. But the same person
will tell you, I have made my son a merchant; he will be a rich man.
Why? Because (A B) was a merchant, who, from nothing, died worth a
hundred thousand pounds. But if you go through all the letters of the
alphabet following (A B), among those who set out as he did, you will
find, that perhaps every one of them died a bankrupt. Those who prove
successful are remarkable: those who miscarry are never heard of. It is
just so with respect to the question before us. But to return to our
tables, and what are called calculations.
One marriage produces four children at a medium in England. If you
reckon 6,000,000 of people in that country, and that 1⁄30 part dies
annually, then to keep up the stock it is sufficient that 200,000 be
annually born; add to this the yearly increase of 9000, the total of
births will then be 209,000: for if 200,000 die this year, and if
209,000 be born, this must certainly imply an increase of 9000,
providing we suppose the acquisition of foreigners to be equal to the
exportation of the natives. As this is only meant as an illustration, I
need not examine the matter of fact. The next question is, how many
marriages, properly contracted or encouraged as above, will give this
increase? For we may know that these subsisting in that kingdom, joined
with the effects of extramatrimonial conjunctions, is just sufficient to
produce it. I imagine that nothing but experiment can give the solution
of this question. Mr. King supposes every 104th person in England to
marry yearly, that is 57,682 persons, or 28,841 couples. If this number
of marriages be supposed to subsist with fertility for seven years,
producing a child every year, the number of 200,000 births would be
procured; but I apprehend that marriages, rightly contracted, subsist
much longer in general than seven years, even with fertility, though not
in proportion to a child every year: consequently, the number of
marriages constantly subsisting with fertility in England, where it is
supposed that 28,841 are yearly contracted, must be much greater than
seven times that number, or than 201,887. If we suppose the whole of the
209,000 births to be produced by marriages, at three marriages to every
child annually produced, then the number of marriages subsisting will be
627,000. From these speculations (for I do not pretend to call them
calculations) I conclude, that the more fruitful marriages are rendered
(not with regard to procreation, merely, but multiplication, which I
have above distinguished) the fewer become necessary; and the fewer
unnecessary marriages are contracted, the better for the state, and the
less misery for those who contract them. I shall here stop, and leave to
the reader to draw his conclusions, putting him in mind of the wide
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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