An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Oeconomy (Vol. 1 of 2): Being an essay on the science of domestic policy in free nations. In which are particularly considered population, agriculture, trade, industry, money, coin, interest, circulation, banks, exchange, public credit, and taxesSteuart, James, Sir
History
An Inquiry into the Principles of Political Oeconomy (Vol. 1 of 2): Being an essay on the science of domestic policy in free nations. In which are particularly considered population, agriculture, trade, industry, money, coin, interest, circulation, banks, exchange, public credit, and taxes
Steuart, James, Sir
Economics
difference that is always found between theory and practice.
From this reasoning I infer, that no exact judgment can be formed, as to
the numbers in any society, from the single datum of the annual number
of deaths among them; and although the just proportion between numbers
and deaths may exactly be determined in one particular place, yet that
proportion will not serve as a general standard, and being taken for
granted may lead to error.
Here are the reasons for my opinion.
Were no body to marry but such as could maintain their children, the
bills of births and burials would, I apprehend, diminish, and yet
numbers might remain as before; and were every body to marry who could
procreate, they certainly would increase, but still numbers would never
exceed the proportion of subsistence. Could we but see bills of births
and deaths for the city of Rome, while in all its glory; or indeed for
the sugar colonies in America, where slaves are imported, adding the
number of those imported to that of births, and supposing the colony
neither upon the growing nor the declining hand, then the deaths and
births would be equal; but the proportion of them to all in the colony,
I apprehend, would be far less than in any state in Europe, where
slavery does not prevail.
It may be alledged, that were all to marry, the consequence would be a
great multiplication. I say not; or if it were, what sort of
multiplication would it be? A multitude of children who never could come
to manhood; or who would starve their parents, and increase misery
beyond expression. All therefore that can be learned from bills of
mortality, &c. is, that if the births exceed the deaths, and that all
remain in the country, numbers will increase; that if the deaths exceed
the births, numbers will diminish; but while they stand at par, no
conclusion can be drawn as to numbers in general: these will be in a
less proportion as abusive procreation goes forward; and, _vice versa_,
they will be in a greater. There still hangs a cloud upon this subject:
let me therefore reason upon an example. Suppose the inhabitants of a
country to stand at 6,000,000, one thirtieth to die every year, and as
many to be born, that is, the births and burials to stand at 200,000;
that every three marriages subsisting produce a child every year, that
is 600,000 marriages; let the quantity of food be supposed the same,
without a possibility of being augmented. Would not the consequence be,
that numbers could not increase? Now let me suppose marriages carried to
1,000,000, I say the effect would be, either that they would become in
general less fruitful, or if they suffered no diminution in this
particular, that the bills of births and deaths would rise to 333,333;
that is to say, they would be to the number of inhabitants as 1 to 18,
instead of being as 1 to 30. Now this increase of mortality proceeding
from want of food, either the old would starve the young, or the young
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