Apparitions and thought-transference: an examination of the evidence for telepathyPodmore, Frank
Philosophy
Apparitions and thought-transference: an examination of the evidence for telepathy
Podmore, Frank
Apparitions; Telepathy
_Journal_ of the Society for Psychical Research in this country.[71] He
will then perhaps be prepared to endorse the verdict of a shrewd and
genial critic on the evidence presented in _Phantasms of the Living_,
viz., that it "can only be rejected as a whole by one who is prepared
to repeat at his leisure what David is reported to have said in his
haste."[72]
It is of course not possible with our present knowledge to estimate
with any precision the probabilities for the coincidence by chance of
such a vision as that recorded by Dr. Dupré (No. 47), or such a dream
as Mr. Hamilton's (No. 58), with the event represented. Neither the
nature of the percipient's impression in these and similar cases, nor
the event to which the impression corresponds, are sufficiently well
defined to admit of any numerical argument being based upon them. We
can only recognise that whilst dreams and mind's-eye pictures are not
very uncommon experiences, dreams and visions which faithfully reflect
external events of an unlikely kind occur, if rarely, with sufficient
frequency to give us pause. The common sense which in such cases leads
us to infer a connection between the event and the corresponding
mental experience is our only guide. But one large class of our
spontaneous evidences is susceptible of more exact treatment. Sensory
hallucinations are affections at once well marked and unusual. If we
can ascertain their relative frequency it is possible to calculate with
more or less exactness the probabilities of the coincidence by chance
with some definite event. Such a calculation has been attempted in
Chapter IX. with regard to hallucinations of a certain well-defined
type coinciding with the death of the person represented. The
conclusion there reached is that such coincidences are far too numerous
to be ascribed to chance. This part of the evidence cannot therefore be
summarily dismissed, as suggested by more than one recent critic, on
the plea that hallucinations which coincide with a death may be set off
against hallucinations which occur without any coincidence, and both
alike be regarded as purely subjective and without significance. Our
own estimate of the probabilities is, of course, provisional, and may
ultimately prove to be wide of the mark. But, meanwhile, it is at least
proof against assault by conjectural statistics or the _obiter dicta_
of amateur psychologists.
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