Germany -- Commerce -- Great Britain; Great Britain -- Commerce; Great Britain -- Commerce -- Germany
These figures hardly bear out the statement that “commercial dry rot,”
to use one of Mr. Williams’s favourite phrases, has already laid hold of
us. In spite of the fall in prices, the money value of our trade, both
import and export, has fully maintained its level. It is true that the
year 1886, with which the diagram starts, was a year of depression, but
the point which I wish to bring out by the diagram is not that 1895 was
a better year than 1886, but that the general course for the whole
period of ten years shows no downward tendency. Later on I shall give a
diagram, covering a period of fifteen years, which brings out the same
point even more clearly. It is important, however, at once to point out
that the mere comparison of the money totals of our trade in different
years is necessarily inconclusive, because no account is taken of
prices. To get a true comparison between any two years, say 1895 and
1890, we ought to calculate what the value of our trade in 1895 would
have been if each separate commodity had been sold at the prices of
1890. Were this done, it would probably be found that 1895, instead of
showing a decline, would show an immense advance. A similar comparison
has been privately worked out in one of the Government offices for the
years 1873 and 1886 with startling results, which I am permitted to
quote. It must be premised that only certain articles are entered in our
returns by quantity as well as by value, and it is therefore only
between these that such a comparison as I have indicated can be made. In
1873, the total declared value of our exports of these articles was 172
millions sterling; in 1886, it was 131 millions, showing an apparent
fall of 41 millions. But if these exports of 1886 had been declared at
the prices of 1873 the total value would have been 215 millions. In this
sense, then, our aggregate trade in these commodities in 1886, instead
of being 41 millions worse than 1873, was 43 millions better. This is
undoubtedly an extreme illustration, for the prices of 1873 were
exceptionally high, and those of 1886 exceptionally low. Nevertheless,
the illustration is most instructive as showing how extremely misleading
it may be to compare values only, without taking account of quantities.
Unfortunately, when we are dealing with the total trade of a country, a
comparison of values is the only comparison possible, for there is no
other common denominator by means of which varied articles—say, steam
ploughs, cotton piece-goods, and patent medicines—can be brought into
our table.
OUR IMPORTS OF GOLD AND SILVER.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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