Doubtless all these are _intended_ to be, or to be deemed, fair
approximations towards the real numerical relations existing between
those who will be found generally opposed to each other in the House of
Commons; but it is obvious that such calculations are, to a very great
extent, purely conjectural, and deeply tinctured by the political
predilections of those who make them; and indeed it is impossible for
any calm and well-informed observer to cast his eyes over the columns on
which these calculations are based, without seeing abundant reason for
doubting the propriety of even the Conservative classifications. The
gentlemen whose political opinions and intentions are thus confidently
dealt with, must often smile at the position thus assigned to them. In
the Liberal journals of this day,[19] for instance, two members, Mr
Duncuft, for Oldham, and Mr Sandars, for Wakefield, are set down as
“Non-Ministerialists,” “Liberals,” and “Oppositionists;” while, on the
preceding day, Mr Duncuft is reported as returning thanks for the toast
of “The Conservatives of Lancashire;” and proposing “The Conservative
Press,” at a dinner given by “The Conservatives of Wakefield,” to Mr
Sandars! And very many other names might be mentioned, which the
slightest consideration must show to be referred to the wrong category.
There are undoubtedly many, and will be more, gentlemen returned to
Parliament, so far unpledged to particular measures, and having
indicated, in such general terms, the tendency of their political
opinions, as to render it doubtful on which side of the Speaker’s chair
they will sit, or on which side they would vote on the leading political
questions of the day. But we would warn those who have been so loudly
proclaiming their confident opinions on the subject, to pause before
coming to a conclusion on the course which will be adopted by the
majority, on the first fair and avowed trial of strength between
Ministers and their opponents. In our opinion, on a calculation of the
probable character of the members, upwards of 70, yet unreturned—but all
of whose names are known, and their general political opinions
ascertained—whoever shall propose a direct motion of want of confidence
in Ministers, or any motion having that tendency, will find himself in a
very considerable, if not, indeed, in a large minority. The consequences
of such a successfully taken step, all must see, would be exceedingly
serious; and a forced resignation under such circumstances would greatly
dissatisfy the country, and still further confuse the present perplexed
party relations of those opposed to the Government. Long before
Parliament meets, which will be probably towards the close of October,
each member will have asked himself frequently and anxiously the grave
question—Who is to succeed Lord Derby? And how is the compact and
formidable phalanx of his present supporters to be practically dealt
with? Without such a sacrifice of principle as would shock the morality
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