"The quantity of grain imported in seven months only, viz. from 5th
July 1846, to 5th February 1847, exceeded six millions of quarters, at
the very time when our exports were diminishing. It may be imagined
how prodigious must have been the drain upon the metallic resources of
the country to make up the balance. The potato rot, it is said, has
_concealed_ the effects of free trade. Quite the reverse. Providence
has done the thing at once. We have got on at railway speed to the
blessings of the new system. Free trade was to lead to the _much
desired substitution of six millions of quarters of foreign, for six
millions of quarters of home growth in three years_. But the potato rot
has done it _in one_. The free trade policy could not have done it so
expeditiously, but it would have done it as effectually. It is a total
mistake, therefore, to represent the famine in Ireland and the West of
Scotland as an external calamity which has concealed the effects of
free trade. _It has only brought them to light at once._"--LESSONS FROM
THE FAMINE. _Blackwood's Magazine_, March 1847.
The real amount of the famine in Ireland, of which so much has been
said, was very much magnified, however, by the fears of some parties
and the interested exaggerations of others. The deficiency in the
two islands has been stated variously, at from sixteen to twenty
million pounds worth. Take it at the larger sum to avoid all idea of
misrepresentation--what is this to the total agricultural produce of
Great Britain and Ireland? That is estimated by Mr Porter on very
rational grounds at three hundred millions annually, in produce of
all kinds. The subtraction of twenty millions worth;--_a fifteenth
part_, at the very utmost, could never account for the prodigious
rise of prices from forty-nine shillings a-quarter to one hundred
and ten shillings, which wheat rose to in March 1847. It was the
impulse given to speculation in grain, by the sudden throwing open
of the ports by Sir Robert Peel's free trade measures, which really
occasioned the prodigious importation so much exceeding what was
required, which actually took place. The defalcation occasioned by
the Irish potato rot, and the deficiency of the oat-crop in Great
Britain, was at the very utmost a fifteenth part of the annual supply.
But the grain imported in the first nine months of this year has
exceeded ten millions of quarters, being a full _sixth_ part of the
annual consumption of the nation, which for the use of man and animals
together is estimated at sixty million quarters. And hence the rapid
fall of prices which followed the fine harvest of 1847, from one
hundred shillings to fifty shillings, which has involved in ruin so
many houses concerned in the corn trade.
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