Precognition -- Fiction; Science fiction; Social classes -- Fiction
Kraybo was twenty-one, and had been in training as a Guesser ever since
he was old enough to speak and understand. He showed occasional flashes
of tremendous ability, but most of the time he seemed--well, _lazy_. And
then, there was always the question of his actual ability.
A battle in the weirdly distorted space of ultralight velocities
requires more than machines and more than merely ordinary human
abilities. No computer, however built, can possibly estimate the flight
of a dodging spaceship with a canny human being at the controls. Even
the superfast beams from a megadyne force gun require a finite time to
reach their target, and it is necessary to fire at the place where the
attacking ship will be, not at the position it is occupying at the time
of firing. That was a bit of knowledge as old as human warfare: you must
lead a moving target.
For a target moving at a constant velocity, or a constant acceleration,
or in any other kind of orbit which is mathematically predictable, a
computer was not only necessary, but sufficient. In such a case, the
accuracy was perfect, the hits one hundred per cent.
But the evasive action taken by a human pilot, aided by a randomity
selector, is not logical and therefore cannot be handled by a computer.
Like the path of a microscopic particle in Brownian motion, its position
can only be predicted statistically; estimating its probable location is
the best that can be done. And, in space warfare, probability of that
order is simply not good enough.
To compute such an orbit required a special type of human mind, and
therefore a special type of human. It required a Guesser.
The way a Guesser's mind operated could only be explained _to_ a Guesser
_by_ another Guesser. But, as far as anyone else was concerned, only the
objective results were important. A Guesser could "guess" the route of a
moving ship, and that was all anyone cared about. And a Master Guesser
prided himself on his ability to guess accurately 99.999% of the time.
The ancient sport of baseball was merely a test of muscular
co-ordination for a Guesser; as soon as a Guesser child learned to
control a bat, his batting average shot up to 1.000 and stayed there
until he got too old to swing the bat. A Master Guesser could make the
same score blindfolded.
Hitting a ship in space at ultralight velocities was something else
again. Young Kraybo could play baseball blindfolded, but he wasn't yet
capable of making the master guesses that would protect a merchantship
like the _Naipor_.
But what was the matter with him? He had, of course, a fire-control
computer to help him swing and aim his guns, but he didn't seem to be
able to depend on his guesswork. He had more than once fired at a spot
where the computer said the ship would be instead of firing at the spot
where it actually arrived a fraction of a second later.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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