Athapascan Indians; Indians of North America -- California
From the preceding data we have obtained population estimates for
certain of the California Athabascan groups. If these estimates are
judged reliable, it would be desirable to use them as a basis for
estimating the population of the remaining groups. When a detailed
analysis of the ecological or demographical factors involved is lacking,
it is sometimes necessary to fall back on rather simplistic assumptions
to attain the desired end. Cook goes rather far in this direction, using
simply the average population density per square mile of the known
groups to estimate the population of the unknown groups.
It appears to this writer that a somewhat more satisfactory method of
estimation would be based on simple linear regression theory. It is
a fact that pertinent relationships in population studies can often
be expressed in terms of simple exponential functions or in linear
combinations of logarithms. Thus we might propose a relationship such as
the following:
population = a + b (ln area)
or
population = a + b (ln fishing miles)
where a and b are constants to be determined and ln is the logarithm to
the base e.
Of course we would not expect these relationships to be precise.
The lack of exactness might be due to the crudeness of the various
measurements involved or perhaps to the fact that population depends on
more than one such factor. To account in some way for the uncertainty,
we might make a further assumption and propose the following
relationships:
population = a + b (ln area) + X
population = a + b (ln fishing miles) + X
where X has a normal probability distribution with mean = 0 and some
unknown variance = =s=^{2}. X is then, roughly speaking, the error
involved in each observation. That the error would be distributed
normally is quite reasonable under the circumstances. In situations
where the uncertainty of the observation is due to measurement error
or to a multiplicity of factors, the distribution obtained often
assumes a normal form or a form sufficiently normal so that the normal
distribution can be used as an approximation.
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