Chance, Love, and Logic: Philosophical EssaysPeirce, Charles S. (Charles Sanders)
Philosophy
Chance, Love, and Logic: Philosophical Essays
Peirce, Charles S. (Charles Sanders)
Metaphysics; Peirce, Charles S. (Charles Sanders), 1839-1914 -- Bibliography; Pragmatism; Science -- Philosophy
It is not altogether accidental that, since Boole and DeMorgan, those
who have occupied themselves with symbolic logic have felt called upon
to deal with the problem of probability. The reason is indicated by
Peirce when he formulates the problem of probable inference in such a
way as to make the old classic logic of absolutely true or false
conclusions, a limiting case (i.e., of values 1 and 0) of the logic of
probable inference whose values range all the way between these two
limits. This technical device is itself the result of applying the
principle of continuity to throw two hitherto distinct types of
reasoning into the same class. The result is philosophically
significant.
Where the classical logic spoke of major and minor premises without
establishing any really important difference between the two, Peirce
draws a distinction between the premises and the guiding principle of
our argument. All reasoning is from some concrete situation to another.
The propositions which represent the first are the premises in the
strict sense of the word. But the feeling that certain conclusions
follow from these premises is conditioned by an implicit or explicit
belief in some guiding principle which connects the premises and the
conclusions. When such a leading principle results in true conclusions
in all cases of true premises, we have logical deduction of the orthodox
type. If, however, such a principle brings about a true conclusion only
in a certain proportion of cases, then we have probability.
This reduction of probability to the relative frequency of true
propositions in a class of propositions, was suggested to Peirce by
Venn’s _Logic of Chance_. Peirce uses it to establish some truths of
greatest importance to logic and philosophy.
He eliminates the difficulties of the old conceptualist view, which made
probability a measure of our ignorance and yet had to admit that almost
all fruitfulness of our practical and scientific reasoning depended on
the theorems of probability. How could we safely predict phenomena by
measuring our ignorance?
Probability being reduced to a matter of the relative frequency of a
class in a larger class or genus, it becomes, strictly speaking,
inapplicable to single cases by themselves. A single penny will fall
head or it will fall tail every time; to-morrow it will rain, or it will
not rain at all. The probability of 1/2 or any other fraction means
nothing in the single case. It is only because we feel the single event
as representative of a class, as something which repeats itself, that we
speak elliptically of the probability of a single event. Hence follows
the important corollary that reasoning with respect to the probability
of this or that arrangement of the universe would be valid only if
universes were as plentiful as blackberries.
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