Climatic Changes: Their Nature and CausesHuntington, Ellsworth
Science
Climatic Changes: Their Nature and Causes
Huntington, Ellsworth
Climatic changes; Climatology; Paleoclimatology
It is these mild climates which we must now attempt to explain. This
leads us to inquire what would happen to the climate of the earth as a
whole if the conditions which now prevail at times of few sunspots were
to become intensified. That they could become greatly intensified seems
highly probable, for there is good reason to think that aside from the
sunspot cycle the sun's atmosphere is in a disturbed condition. The
prominences which sometimes shoot out hundreds of thousands of miles
seem to be good evidence of this. Suppose that the sun's atmosphere
should become very quiet. This would apparently mean that cyclonic
storms would be much less numerous and less severe than during the
present times of sunspot minima. The storms would also apparently follow
paths in middle latitudes somewhat as they do now when sunspots are
fewest. The first effect of such a condition, if we can judge from what
happens at present, would be a rise in the general temperature of the
earth, because less heat would be carried aloft by storms. Today, as is
shown in _Earth and Sun_, a difference of perhaps 10 per cent in the
average storminess during periods of sunspot maxima and minima is
correlated with a difference of 3 deg.C. in the temperature at the earth's
surface. This includes not only an actual lowering of 0.6 deg.C. at times of
sunspot maxima, but the overcoming of the effect of increased insolation
at such times, an effect which Abbot calculates as about 2.5 deg.C. If the
storminess were to be reduced to one-half or one-quarter its present
amount at sunspot minima, not only would the loss of heat by upward
convection in storms be diminished, but the area covered by clouds would
diminish so that the sun would have more chance to warm the lower air.
Hence the average rise of temperature might amount to as much at 5 deg. or
10 deg.C.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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