Climatic Changes: Their Nature and CausesHuntington, Ellsworth
Science
Climatic Changes: Their Nature and Causes
Huntington, Ellsworth
Climatic changes; Climatology; Paleoclimatology
The third, or meteorological hypothesis, which makes barometric pressure
the main intermediary between solar activity and earthquakes, seems at
first sight almost as improbable as the thermal and electrical
hypotheses. Nevertheless, it has a certain degree of observational
support of a kind which is wholly lacking in the other two cases. Among
the extensive writings on the periodicity of earthquakes one main fact
stands out with great distinctness: earthquakes vary in number according
to the season. This fact has already been shown incidentally in the
table of earthquake frequency by months. If allowance is made for the
fact that February is a short month, there is a regular decrease in the
frequency of severe earthquakes from December and January to June. Since
most of Milne's earthquakes occurred in the northern hemisphere, this
means that severe earthquakes occur in winter about 20 per cent oftener
than in summer.
The most thorough investigation of this subject seems to have been that
of Davisson.[128] His results have been worked over and amplified by
Knott,[129] who has tested them by Schuster's exact mathematical
methods. His results are given in Table 8.[130] Here the northern
hemisphere is placed first; then come the East Indies and the Malay
Archipelago lying close to the equator; and finally the southern
hemisphere. In the northern hemisphere practically all the maxima come
in the winter, for the month of December appears in fifteen cases out of
the twenty-five in column D, while January, February, or November
appears in six others. It is also noticeable that in sixteen cases out
of twenty-five the ratio of the actual to the expected amplitude in
column G is four or more, so that a real relationship is indicated,
while the ratio falls below three only in Japan and Zante. The
equatorial data, unlike those of the northern hemisphere, are
indefinite, for in the East Indies no month shows a marked maximum and
the expected amplitude exceeds the actual amplitude. Even in the Malay
Archipelago, which shows a maximum in May, the ratio of actual to
expected amplitude is only 2.6. Turning to the southern hemisphere, the
winter months of that hemisphere are as strongly marked by a maximum as
are the winter months of the northern hemisphere. July or August appears
in five out of six cases. Here the ratio between the actual and expected
amplitudes is not so great as in the northern hemisphere. Nevertheless,
it is practically four in Chile, and exceeds five in Peru and Bolivia,
and in the data for the entire southern hemisphere.
TABLE 8
SEASONAL MARCH OF EARTHQUAKES
AFTER DAVISSON AND KNOTT
A: _Region_
B: _Limiting Dates_
C: _Number of Shocks_
D: _Maximum Month_
E: _Amplitude_
F: _Expected Amplitude_
G: _Ratio of Actual to Expected Amplitude_
A B C D E F G
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