In 1634, in what later came o be known as "tulipmania", tulip bulbs
were traded in a special marketplace in Amsterdam, the scene of a
rabid speculative frenzy. Some rare black tulip bulbs changed hands
for the price of a big mansion house. For four feverish years it
seemed like the craze would last forever. But the bubble burst in
1637. In a matter of a few days, the price of tulip bulbs was
slashed by 96%!
Uniquely, tulipmania was not an organized scam with an identifiable
group of movers and shakers, which controlled and directed it. Nor
has anyone made explicit promises to investors regarding guaranteed
future profits. The hysteria was evenly distributed and fed on
itself. Subsequent investment fiddles were different, though.
Modern dodges entangle a large number of victims. Their size and
all-pervasiveness sometimes threaten the national economy and the
very fabric of society and incur grave political and social costs.
There are two types of bubbles.
Asset bubbles of the first type are run or fanned by financial
intermediaries such as banks or brokerage houses. They consist of
"pumping" the price of an asset or an asset class.
The assets concerned can be shares, currencies, other securities and
financial instruments - or even savings accounts. To promise
unearthly yields on one's savings is to artificially inflate the
"price", or the "value" of one's savings account.
More than one fifth of the population of 1983 Israel were involved
in a banking scandal of Albanian proportions. It was a classic
pyramid scheme. All the banks, bar one, promised to gullible
investors ever increasing returns on the banks' own publicly-traded
shares.
These explicit and incredible promises were included in prospectuses
of the banks' public offerings and won the implicit acquiescence and
collaboration of successive Israeli governments. The banks used
deposits, their capital, retained earnings and funds illegally
borrowed through shady offshore subsidiaries to try to keep their
impossible and unhealthy promises. Everyone knew what was going on
and everyone was involved. It lasted 7 years. The prices of some
shares increased by 1-2 percent daily.
On October 6, 1983, the entire banking sector of Israel crumbled.
Faced with ominously mounting civil unrest, the government was
forced to compensate shareholders. It offered them an elaborate
share buyback plan over 9 years. The cost of this plan was pegged
at $6 billion - almost 15 percent of Israel's annual GDP. The
indirect damage remains unknown.
Avaricious and susceptible investors are lured into investment
swindles by the promise of impossibly high profits or interest
payments.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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