In an editorial on October 26, it blasted rabid speculators and
compliant analysts: ``We shall hear considerably less in the future
of those newly invented conceptions of finance which revised the
principles of political economy with a view solely to fitting the
stock market's vagaries.'' But it ended thus: "(The Federal Reserve
has) insured the soundness of the business situation when the
speculative markets went on the rocks.''
Compare this to Alan Greenspan Congressional testimony this summer:
"While bubbles that burst are scarcely benign, the consequences need
not be catastrophic for the economy ... (The Depression was brought
on by) ensuing failures of policy".
Investors, their equity leveraged with bank and broker loans,
crowded into stocks of exciting "new technologies", such as the
radio and mass electrification. The bull market - especially in
issues of public utilities - was fueled by "mergers, new groupings,
combinations and good earnings" and by corporate purchasing for
"employee stock funds".
Cautionary voices - such as Paul Warburg, the influential banker,
Roger Babson, the "Prophet of Loss" and Alexander Noyes, the eternal
Cassandra from the New York Times - were derided. The number of
brokerage accounts doubled between March 1927 and March 1929.
When the market corrected by 8 percent between March 18-27 -
following a Fed induced credit crunch and a series of mysterious
closed-door sessions of the Fed's board - bankers rushed in. The New
York Times reported: ``Responsible bankers agree that stocks should
now be supported, having reached a level that makes them
attractive.'' By August, the market was up 35 percent on its March
lows. But it reached a peak on September 3 and it was downhill since
then.
On October 19, five days before "Black Thursday", Business Week
published this sanguine prognosis:
"Now, of course, the crucial weaknesses of such periods -- price
inflation, heavy inventories, over-extension of commercial credit --
are totally absent. The security market seems to be suffering only
an attack of stock indigestion... There is additional reassurance in
the fact that, should business show any further signs of fatigue,
the banking system is in a good position now to administer any
needed credit tonic from its excellent Reserve supply."
The crash unfolded gradually. Black Thursday actually ended with an
inspiring rally. Friday and Saturday - trading ceased only on
Sundays - witnessed an upswing followed by mild profit taking. The
market dropped 12.8 percent on Monday, with Winston Churchill
watching from the visitors' gallery - incurring a loss of $10-14
billion.
The Wall Street Journal warned naive investors:
"Many are looking for technical corrective reactions from time to
time, but do not expect these to disturb the upward trend for any
prolonged period."
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account