"We find that the stock market in 1929 did not crash because the
market was overvalued. In fact, the evidence strongly suggests that
stocks were undervalued, even at their 1929 peak."
According to their detailed paper, stocks were trading at 19 times
after-tax corporate earning at the peak in 1929, a fraction of
today's valuations even after the recent correction. A March 1999
"Economic Letter" published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San-
Francisco wholeheartedly concurs. It notes that at the peak, prices
stood at 30.5 times the dividend yield, only slightly above the long
term average.
Contrast this with an article published in June 1990 issue of the
"Journal of Economic History" by Robert Barsky and Bradford De Long
and titled "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century":
"Major bull and bear markets were driven by shifts in assessments of
fundamentals: investors had little knowledge of crucial factors, in
particular the long run dividend growth rate, and their changing
expectations of average dividend growth plausibly lie behind the
major swings of this century."
Jude Waninski attributes the crash to the disintegration of the pro-
free-trade coalition in the Senate which later led to the notorious
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. He traces all the important moves
in the market between March 1929 and June 1930 to the intricate
protectionist danse macabre in Congress.
This argument may never be decided. Is a similar crash on the cards?
This cannot be ruled out.
The 1990's resembled the 1920's in more than one way. Are we ready
for a recurrence of 1929? About as we were prepared in 1928. Human
nature - the prime mover behind market meltdowns - seemed not to
have changed that much in these intervening seven decades.
Will a stock market crash, should it happen, be followed by another
"Great Depression"? It depends which kind of crash. The short term
puncturing of a temporary bubble - e.g., in 1962 and 1987 - is
usually divorced from other economic fundamentals. But a major
correction to a lasting bull market invariably leads to recession or
worse.
As the economist Hernan Cortes Douglas reminds us in "The Collapse
of Wall Street and the Lessons of History" published by the
Friedberg Mercantile Group, this was the sequence in London in 1720
(the infamous "South Sea Bubble"), and in the USA in 1835-40 and
1929-32.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account