Through both columns a definite curve may be drawn which grows steadily
and drops steadily. Greater mathematical certainty is almost
unthinkable. Of similar great importance is the parallelization of the
most important conditions. When, e.g., suicides in France, from 1826 to
1870 are taken in series of five years we find the figures 1739, 2263,
2574, 2951, 3446, 3639, 4002, 4661, 5147; if now during that period the
population has increased from 30 to only 36 millions other determining
factors have to be sought.[167]
Again, most authorities as quoted by Gutberlet,[168] indicate that most
suicides are committed in June, fewest in December; most at night,
especially at dawn, fewest at noon, especially between twelve and two
o’clock. The greatest frequency is among the half-educated, the age
between sixty and seventy, and the nationality Saxon (Oettingen).
The combination of such observations leads to the indubitable conclusion
that the results are sufficiently constant to permit making at least an
assumption with regard to the cases in hand. At present, statistics say
little of benefit with regard to the individual; J. S. Mill is right in
holding that the death-rate will help insurance companies but will tell
any individual little concerning the duration of his life. According to
Adolf Wagner, the principal statistical rule is: The law has validity
when dealing with great numbers; the constant regularity is perceivable
only when cases are very numerous; single cases show many a variation
and exception. Quetelet has shown the truth of this in his example of
the circle. “If you draw a circle on the blackboard with thick chalk,
and study its outline closely in small sections, you will find the
coarsest irregularities; but if you step far back and study the circle
as a whole, its regular, perfect form becomes quite distinct.” But the
circle must be drawn carefully and correctly, and one must not give way
to sentimentality and tears when running over a fly’s legs in drawing.
Emil du Bois-Reymond[169] says against this: “When the postmaster
announces that out of 100,000 letters a year, exactly so and so many
come unaddressed, we think nothing of the matter--but when Quetelet
counts so and so many criminals to every 100,000 people our moral sense
is aroused since it is painful to think that we are not criminals simply
because somebody else has drawn the black spot.” But really there is as
little regrettable in this fact as in the observation that every year so
and so many men break their legs, and so and so many die--in those cases
also, a large number of people have the good fortune not to have broken
their legs nor to have died. We have here the irrefutable logic of facts
which reveals nothing vexatious.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account