You enter a room, where there is a book-case containing (say) five
shelves, and your eye wanders carelessly along a shelf, making a rough
estimate of the number of books in it. Now shut your eyes, and try to
guess how many books there are altogether. Your hasty reckoning of
one shelf gave a total (say) of 19 or 20, you are not sure which: so
you feel safe in saying "I think there are about a hundred."
"Are you certain," I ask, "that there are more than fifty?"
"Quite certain," you reply. "And also certain that there are
less than a hundred and fifty?" "Quite certain," you repeat.
Here, then, are the three districts. The numbers up to 50 are
certainly too small; the numbers over 150 are certainly
too great; the intermediate numbers contain some doubtful ones—the
most doubtful being very near 100—and this doubt shades off into
certainty as we approach either of the out-lying districts. You
would not risk five shillings on the chance of the true number being
under 100, or on the chance of its being over 100, but
you would feel quite at your ease, if told that you would forfeit a
thousand pounds, in case the number turned out to be under 50, or over
150.
Another objection, that has already been raised to my Axiom, and so
will probably be raised again, and which I may as well meet here by
anticipation, is that, on the supposition of Euclid I. 32 not
being true, it may be proved that this relationship of magnitude,
between the Tetragon and the Segment, changes as the Circle increases,
until, with an infinitely great Circle, the Tetragon may[Pg xxiii] actually be
proved to be less than the Segment! This phenomenon, however,
does not appal me so much as might be expected: for I have often
observed it to occur that, when Theorem logically leads
to Theorem , then, on the supposition of Theorem
not being true, it may be proved that Theorem also is
not true. (The second sequence is, in fact, what De Morgan calls the
'contranominal' of the first.) Hence this objection, if worth anything,
proves too much: to dispute the validity of an argument, on the
ground that, if it were valid, its contranominal would also be valid,
is to upset the whole edifice of Logic itself: and, if you tell me,
on such grounds as these, that I cannot prove what I assert,
I may fairly retort upon you, that you cannot prove anything
at all! You have destroyed the only machinery available for the
purpose, and must henceforth dispense with all Logical methods, and
console yourself with the cynical American adage "There's nothing true:
and there's nothing new: and it don't signify!"
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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