Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political Economy — John Shaqi
Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political EconomyCool, Thomas (Thomas Herman Anthonius Maria)
Science
Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political Economy
Cool, Thomas (Thomas Herman Anthonius Maria)
Economics; Political science
· The second point concerns _self-reference_ (reflexiveness). The model
contains a submodel of State instruments. Clarity requires that policy
itself is clearly formulated and put into the model too (with error
terms to allow for possible discretion).
· The third point is _conflictive self-reference_. One can conceive the
situation that the government announces a policy while the true
scientific forecast shows that the policy is untenable and will be
repealed later. Hence there is an internal source of conflict - the
worst kind, not a dysfunctional person, but a logical knot.
· Finally, there is a ‘general conflict of interests’. Governments have
more objectives, and any power group might want to exert its influence
anyway.
It follows from this that the Constitution should warrant for the
Economic Supreme Court:
· It would be possible for the Court to use a model with an endogenous
government. The Court would scientifically forecast government actions,
instead of _conditionally_. The conditional forecast assumption that
government promises will be kept and government assumptions realised,
will be dropped.
· As the Court will have a scientific base, there can be publications
and discussions with different analyses, and these would not by
themselves mean a breach of confidentiality.
· The Court cannot exist without some power.
It would suffice for the Court to have the power to veto the national
budget if the information that the Executive presents or uses for the
budget is scientifically incorrect (in the judgement of the Court). The
information and statistics only. The Court will focus on the statement
on the deficit and the national debt, since all errors accumulate in
those figures - though it can call any number or piece of economic
information into question. Parliament of course keeps the power to
decide on the budget and on policy. President and Parliament would lose
the power to make misleading statements as judged by the Court.
An appendix contains a draft constitutional amendment as an example, to
start thinking about it. The appendices also contain a description of
the current US Council of Economic Advisers, and the difference should
be clear - e.g. where the CEA appears to have no scientific status.
With an Economic Supreme Court in place, a downside is that a nation
could get stuck in a specific economic theory. A Court could believe in
Monetarism while reality would require something differently. Indeed,
Keynes himself addressed his _General Theory_ to his fellow economists,
who were as conservative as politicians in rejecting his proposals
about fighting the Great Depression. To answer this: Such stagnation in
policy making can happen nowadays too, but the situation with a Court
is much more transparant. Also, the very job of the Court requires it
to pay attention to the data, and this tends to make for eclectic
views.
7. Position of the Court in economic theory
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