The explanation for this probably lies in the fact that Japan has
practised civilised arts for a longer period than many of the European
and other countries mentioned in the table.
In Japan, no doubt, the records of later years have been more perfect
than they were in early times, but this, although so potent an effacer
of what was probably the true state of natural phenomena in the case of
Europe, has not quite obliterated the truth in Japan; for instead of an
apparent increase of seismic energy since early times it shows a slight
decrease.
To draw up a table of earthquakes such as the one which has just been
given, and then, after the inspection of it, draw conclusions as to
whether there has been an increase or decrease in seismic energy, is,
however, hardly a just method of reasoning. The earthquakes, taken as
they are, for the whole of Japan, represent a collection of places some
of which are 1,000 miles apart. When we consider that many earthquakes
which occurred at one end of this line were never felt at the other
end, in order to justly estimate the periodicity of seismic phenomena
it would seem that we ought either to take some particular seismic area
or else the whole world.
The particular area which has been taken is that of Kioto in Central
Japan, and the earthquakes which have been felt there are enumerated in
the table.
In order to show the variation in seismic activity of this district a
curve has been plotted, fig. 35, with ordinates equal to the values
given for the Kioto earthquakes during succeeding centuries. The upper
points of these ascending and descending lines are joined by a free
curve. The lower points are similarly joined. The points of bisection
of ordinates drawn between these two curves are taken as points in a
curve to show the true secular change in seismic energy.
[Illustration: FIG. 35.—Curve of Seismic Intensity for Kioto.]
By looking at this wavy line it will be seen that the intervals between
maxima and minima are closer together in early times than they are
later on.
Thus, between the eighth century and the ninth century, points of
maximum and minimum seismic efforts occurred at times a century apart,
whilst later on, from the eleventh to the fifteenth century, they were
at intervals of 300 years apart.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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