Essays on Mankind and Political ArithmeticPetty, William, Sir
History
Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
Petty, William, Sir
London (England) -- Population; Population
It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth in
London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred
years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great
plagues—viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to
be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth part
of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do double but in
360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but 20,000, and in
twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be
2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence), then the
plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years)
will destroy as many in one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in
twenty; and consequently the people of the nation shall never increase.
But if the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of
our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of the
whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if people be
worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said
greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of
£1,400,000 per annum, and so _pro rata_ for a greater or lesser number;
wherefore to determine which of the two states is best—that is to say,
towards which of the said two states authority should bend the present
state, a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the
plague, with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above
mentioned, unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a
better rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have
here given, or are yet able to lay down.
POSTSCRIPT.
IT was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the
city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the whole
world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning
the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of the
quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. Nevertheless,
since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences
(perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might be
explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth:—
1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be under
50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the said number
of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), and for
that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present
320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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