Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic — John Shaqi
Essays on Mankind and Political ArithmeticPetty, William, Sir
History
Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
Petty, William, Sir
London (England) -- Population; Population
3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased
A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or,
according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025,
increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been
some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing be
very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of
them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely that when
1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8
inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be 48,000,
and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30,
would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason
I continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 houses
as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience
to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have increased from
3,850 to 6,025.
Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because
that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200;
whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the
aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to
be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is
the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will
ere long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries.
4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London,
just before the troubles in religion began, the births were five-sixths
of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of families in
London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not for want of
registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377,
there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births in Dublin for the
year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in
that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, when there died but
1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the
burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal books, which
must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin.
The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin are
rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register
their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none
have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased from
about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may
also be better had from direct inquiries.
OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE OF
THAT CITY.
THE observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new light
to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as
snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.
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