Essays on Mankind and Political ArithmeticPetty, William, Sir
History
Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic
Petty, William, Sir
London (England) -- Population; Population
But the interest of those “Essays in Political Arithmetic” lies chiefly
in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. London had become
in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city in Europe, if not in
the world. This Sir William Petty sought to prove against the doubts of
foreign and other critics, and his “Political Arithmetic” was an
endeavour to determine the relative strength in population of the chief
cities of England, France, and Holland. His application of arithmetic in
the first of these essays to a census of the population at the Day of
Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a
bygone form of theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings
upon them grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in
the reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions
might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London
before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very
suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in the
coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made in
conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one even now
can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved.
There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the people. The first
census in this country was not until more than a hundred years after Sir
William Petty’s death, although he points out in these essays how easily
it could be established, and what useful information it would give.
There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before Christ. But the first
census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, under provision of an Act
passed on the last day of the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the
population every ten years. Ireland was not included in the return; the
first census in Ireland was not until the year 1813.
Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills of
Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but fell
into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number of
deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of diseases first
appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published every
Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him for four
shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences as to the number
of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. And even now our
Political Arithmetic depends too much upon rough calculations made from
the death register. It is seven years since the last census; we have
lost count of the changes in our population to a very great extent, and
have to wait three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The
interval should be reduced to five years.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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