This sounds so simple and so convincing that we are tempted to try it.
But first let us make sure that we have learned our lesson properly. In
the course of long ages mankind has slowly accumulated enough experience
to warrant the confident belief that Nature is uniform. Now, primitive
man was of course a savage, and knew nothing of the Uniformity of
Nature; he therefore could not have had sufficient evidence for
believing anything in his experience. But it is on the accumulation of
such experiences--every one of which we must reject because they were
not based on the Uniformity of Nature--that our belief in the Uniformity
of Nature is supposed to rest. In other words, it is based on them and
they were based on nothing. This result of acting strictly up to the
principle of not suffering anything to pass without sufficient evidence
seems somewhat discouraging, until the man of science comes to our
rescue and reminds us that just as we, without knowing it, have acted
all our lives on the tacit assumption that Nature is uniform, so did
primitive man; and that consequently there really was sufficient
evidence and scientific proof for the savage's experiences, though of
course he could not have framed it in words; and so, the bases of the
Uniformity of Nature are really quite sound. But even now we are not
altogether out of our difficulties, for granted that the savage, like
ourselves, tacitly assumed Nature to be uniform, was there sufficient
evidence for the assumption? and if so, what was the evidence? It could
not be the Uniformity of Nature, because that is just the question; and,
if it was anything else, it was not sufficient evidence.
It really seems rather difficult to get sufficient evidence for the
axiom, viz. the Uniformity of Nature, on which the whole of science is
built. And yet we must have sufficient evidence for it, or else we shall
have to conclude that Science has no more logical foundation than
Religion.
But once more the man of science comes to our assistance and explains
that in the beginning, before the Uniformity of Nature is proved, it is
only probable that what has once happened will happen again in similar
circumstances, and at first perhaps not very probable; but when wider
and wider experience still shows that what has once happened does
actually happen again under the same circumstances, the Uniformity of
Nature becomes more and more probable, until at last, if not actually
proved, it is still the most probable hypothesis that we possess or can
possess: "our highest and surest generalisations remain on the level of
justifiable expectations; that is, very high probabilities."[26]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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