Now, with all respect to logicians like John Stuart Mill, and men of
science like Huxley, we must point out that this begs the whole
question. If we assume that Nature is uniform, then it is probable that
what has often happened will happen again. But if we do not assume that
Nature is uniform, then the repeated occurrence of a thing does not make
it in the least probable that it will occur again. To assume without
proof that Nature is uniform is to ask us to accept a statement without
evidence, which, if we have learnt the lesson of science, we can hardly
do. On the other hand, if we begin with the admission that Nature may or
may not be uniform, but that, to begin with, we no more know whether it
will actually prove to be uniform than we know whether a penny, when we
are about to toss it, will fall head or tail; then, according to the
mathematical theory of probability, it matters not how many times you
toss the penny, the chances next throw are exactly the same as they were
at the first throw--it matters not how many times Nature has proved
uniform in the past, she is no more likely to prove uniform to-morrow
than she was on the first of days. If it is really an open question at
the beginning whether Nature is or is not uniform, it remains an open
question to the end. The man of science need not admit that it is an
open question, if he does not want to do so; but if he does admit it,
then let him stick to it throughout; and let him reflect that if he
begins by admitting it and ends by denying it, he has but gradually
retracted his own free admission, and unconsciously been betrayed into
denying what he began by admitting to be true.
The fact of the matter is that the axioms of science--the Uniformity
of Nature and the Law of Universal Causation--not only are not
proved by what experience we have had of them, but "cannot be proved
by any amount of experience."[27] Not only can they not be proved by
any amount of experience, they are incapable of being demonstrated
at all: "they are neither self-evident nor are they, strictly
speaking, demonstrable."[28] If, then, they are not and cannot be
proved either by experience or in any other way, on what does the
man of science ground his belief in them? On Faith. "The ground of
every one of our actions, and the validity of all our reasonings,
rest upon the great act of faith, which leads us to take the
experience of the past as a safe guide in our dealings with the
present and the future."[29]
FOOTNOTES:
[25] HUXLEY, _Darwiniana_, p. 361.
[26] HUXLEY, _Science and Christian Tradition_, p. 205.
[27] HUXLEY, _Evolution and Ethics_, p. 121.
[28] HUXLEY, _Method and Results_, p. 61.
[29] HUXLEY, _Science and Christian Tradition_, p. 243.
IX.
CONSEQUENCES
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