This periodicity being a fact, Mr. Giffen could make light in 1886 of
“German competition” by showing that exports from the United Kingdom
had not decreased. It can even be said that, per head of population,
they had remained unchanged until 1904, undergoing only the usual ups
and downs.[31] However, when we come to consider the _quantities_
exported, and compare them with the _money values_ of the exports,
even Mr. Giffen had to acknowledge that the prices of 1883 were
so low in comparison with those of 1873 that in order to reach the
same money value the United Kingdom would have had to export four
pieces of cotton instead of three, and eight or ten tons of metallic
goods instead of six. “The aggregate of British foreign trade, if
valued at the prices of ten years previously, would have amounted to
£861,000,000 instead of £667,000,000,” we were told by no less an
authority than the Commission on Trade Depression.
It might, however, be said that 1873 was an exceptional year, owing
to the inflated demand which took place after the Franco-German war.
But the same downward movement continued for a number of years. Thus,
if we take the figures given in the _Statesman’s Year-book_, we see
that while the United Kingdom exported, in 1883, 4,957,000,000 yards
of piece goods (cotton, woollen and linen) and 316,000,000 lb. of
yarn in order to reach an export value of £104,000,000, the same
country had to export, in 1895, no less than 5,478,000,000 yards
of the same stuffs and 330,000,000 lb. of yarn in order to realise
£99,700,000 only. And the figures would have appeared still more
unfavourable if we took the cottons alone. True, the conditions
improved during the last ten years, so that in 1906 the exports were
similar to those of 1873; and they were better still in 1911, which
was a year of an extraordinary foreign trade, when 7,041,000,000
yards of stuffs and 307,000,000 lb. of yarn were exported--the two
being valued at £163,400,000. However, it was especially the yarn
which kept the high prices, because it is the finest sorts of yarn
which are now exported. But the great profits of the years 1873-1880
are irretrievably gone.
We thus see that while the total value of the exports from the United
Kingdom, in proportion to its growing population, remains, broadly
speaking, unaltered for the last thirty years, the high prices which
could be got for the exports thirty years ago, and with them the
high profits, are gone. And no amount of arithmetical calculations
will persuade the British manufacturers that such is not the case.
They know perfectly well that the home markets grow continually
overstocked; that the best foreign markets are escaping; and that
in the neutral markets Britain is being undersold. This is the
unavoidable consequence of the development of manufactures all over
the world. (See Appendix J.)
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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