Business; Capitalists and financiers -- United States; Speculation; Wall Street (New York, N.Y.)
Many speculators lose because the information on which they base their
operations is _insufficient_; more because it is _false_; and others
because, while their information is correct, they do _not know how to
turn it to account_.
Between one or other of these difficulties in the use of information
must be distributed a very large proportion of the losses incurred in
speculation. Incomplete or insufficient information is especially
dangerous. One-sided knowledge is nowhere so deceiving as here. A
railroad, for instance, may report an increase of gross earnings which
is construed as making its stock worth two or three per cent. more than
its current price; but the improvement may be due to transient special
causes, and the road’s current expenses may be growing at a rate which
makes the net increase show a decrease. A financially embarrassed
company may announce an assessment of its stockholders, upon which there
is a rush to sell the stock; a little further explanation shows that the
proceeds of the assessment will so improve the facilities of the
company, or so enable it to reduce its fixed charges, as to make the
stock intrinsically far more valuable than it was before; this discovery
causes a sharp advance in the shares, and the “short” sellers have to
cover their sales at a loss. A stock is bought up freely at New York
because London is taking large amounts of it; a day or two later, the
deliveries show that large holders connected with the management are
unloading on the foreign market upon knowledge of facts damaging to the
prospects of the property; the late buyers then rush to realize, and
pocket a loss instead of a profit. Every day furnishes new instances of
speculations undertaken on this incomplete kind of information, and
which end disastrously because the operators did not wait to be informed
on all sides of the case, but were satisfied to take a pound of
assumption with but an ounce of fact.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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