Business; Capitalists and financiers -- United States; Speculation; Wall Street (New York, N.Y.)
Although the Black Friday “corner” was a temporary calamity, perhaps it
was worth all it cost, in teaching us a useful lesson in financial and
speculative affairs. In my chapter on “Panics, and How to Prevent Them,”
I think I have made several points clear that can be utilized by
financiers, speculators and investors to advantage, in ease of an
impending panic or “corner.”
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CHAPTER XXI.
CAUSES OF LOSS IN SPECULATION.
INADEQUATE INFORMATION.—FALSE INFORMATION.—DEFECTS OF NEWS
AGENCIES.—INSUFFICIENCY OF MARGINS.—DANGERS OF PERSONAL
IDIOSYNCRASIES.—OPERATING IN SEASON AND OUT OF SEASON.—NECESSITY OF
INTELLIGENCE, JUDGMENT AND NERVE.—AN IDEAL STANDARD.—WHAT MAKES A
KING AMONG SPECULATORS?
As there is always a class of speculators whose operations, in the long
run, leave a net result of loss rather than profit, it may not be amiss
if I state what experience has taught me as to the causes of this want
of success.
Undoubtedly, many who enter the arena of speculation are in every way
unfitted to take the risks against such wily opponents as they must
encounter. They are either too ignorant or too wise, too timid or too
bold, too pessimistic or too sanguine, too slow or too hasty, too
diffident or too conceited, too confiding or too incredulous. These are
constitutional defects, any one of which may easily cost an operator a
fortune. And yet self-knowledge, with self-control, may prevent these
natural disqualifications from seriously interfering with success. There
is no mental discipline more severe and exacting than that of
speculation. There is no pursuit in which a man can less afford to
indulge in whims, or prejudices, or pet theories, than that of staking
his money against the prospective changes in financial values. He must
be as calm and as impartial as a judge, not less in respect to the risks
he incurs than in regard to the integrity of his own judgment. I should
lay it down as the first rule necessary to success, that the judgment be
not warped by any natural idiosyncrasies; this being secured, a man may
succeed in spite of his constitutional defects.
Singular as it may seem, there are no advantages beset with greater
dangers than information—the one thing most largely sought after and
most highly prized. Very naturally, most men object to taking a risk
without possessing some knowledge of the conditions that determine the
risk; and yet how few take care that their knowledge is adequate enough
or certain enough for the formation of a safe judgment. In some cases,
knowledge is unattainable and the operation must be a leap in the dark;
and in such instances a man is unwise to step in unless his experience
satisfies him that he is uncommonly sagacious in guessing.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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