Hence the EU's plans for the revival of transport corridors
8 and 10 connecting these countries. If all goes well (and
nothing has hitherto), railways will connect Bulgaria to
Macedonia and river traffic will flow to Serbia from its
southern neighbours. All this is envisioned in the Stability
Pact. There are talks of an oil pipeline across Macedonia's
territory. A pacified Macedonia is fairly crucial to Serbia's
recovery and to the prospects of the whole region to
attract FDI.
NATO is afraid of Turkish-Greek clashes in the aftermath
of Kosovo and Macedonia. Turkey has increasingly cast
itself in its ancient role of "protector of the Balkan
Muslims". Greece is the only Orthodox-Christian member
of the EU and an old foe of the erstwhile Sick Man of
Europe from which it won bloody independence at the
beginning of the 19th century. Such clashes are likely to
destabilize the southern flank of NATO and block the
West's access to Iraq, the Middle East, oil-rich Central
Asia, and northern China. This will seriously dent the new
"Pacific and Middle East Orientations" of the Bush
Administration.
And what about the actual combatants?
Albanians and Macedonian crime gangs (in cahoots with
kleptocratic and venal local politicians) regard Macedonia
as a vital route for drugs, stolen cars, smuggled cigarettes
and soft drinks, illegal immigrants, white slavery, and
weapons dealing. These criminal activities far outweigh
the GDP of all the adversary states combined. This
conflict is about controlling territory and the economic
benefits attendant to such control.
Crime and war provide employment, status, regular
income, perks, and livelihood to many denizens of
Macedonia, Albania, and Bulgaria. They constitute an
outlet for entrepreneurship, however perverted. Fighting
for the cause and smuggling often means travel abroad
(for instance, on fund raising missions), five star
accommodation, and a lavish lifestyle. It also translates
into powers of patronage and excesses of self-enrichment.
Moreover, in ossified, socially stratified, ethnically
polarized, and economically impoverished societies, war
and crime engender social mobility. The likes of Hashim
Thaci, Ramush Harajdini, and Ali Ahmeti often start as
rebels and end as part of the cosseted establishment. Many
a criminal dabble in politics and business.
Hence the tenacity of both phenomena. Hence the bleak
and pessimistic outlook for this region. The "formal"
economies simply cannot compete. Jobs are not created,
the educated are often bitterly idle, salaries are minuscule
if paid at all, the future is past. Crime and politics (one
and the same in the Balkan) are alluring alternatives.
Moreover, the NLA and its political successor DUI is not
a monolithic entity. It is more like an umbrella
organization with serious and fracturing differences of
opinion regarding the ultimate goals of the insurrection
four years ago (2001) and the means to obtain these goals.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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