The three methods give roughly similar results, and we may therefore
accept the ratios of their totals, which is 27 to 75, or say 1 to 3, as
representing the chance that the reconstruction of any six-ridge-interval
square would be correct under the given conditions. On reckoning the
chance as 1 to 2, which will be done at first, it is obvious that the
error, whatever it may be, is on the safe side. A closer equality in the
chance that the ridges in a square might run in the observed way or in
some other way, would result from taking a square of five ridge-intervals
in the side. I believe this to be very closely the right size. A
four-ridge-interval square is certainly too small.
When the reconstructed squares were wrong, they had none the less a
natural appearance. This was especially seen, and on a large scale, in the
result of the method by chequer-work, in which the lineations of an entire
print were constructed by guess. Being so familiar with the run of these
ridges in finger prints, I can speak with confidence on this. My
assumption is, that any one of these reconstructions represents lineations
that might have occurred in Nature, in association with the conditions
outside the square, just as well as the lineations of the actual finger
print. The courses of the ridges in each square are subject to
uncertainties, due to petty _local_ incidents, to which the conditions
outside the square give no sure indication. They appear to be in great
part determined by the particular disposition of each one or more of the
half hundred or so sweat-glands which the square contains. The ridges
rarely run in evenly flowing lines, but may be compared to footways across
a broken country, which, while they follow a general direction, are
continually deflected by such trifles as a tuft of grass, a stone, or a
puddle. Even if the number of ridges emerging from a six-ridge-interval
square equals the number of those which enter, it does not follow that
they run across in parallel lines, for there is plenty of room for any one
of the ridges to end, and another to bifurcate. It is impossible,
therefore, to know beforehand in which, if in any of the ridges, these
peculiarities will be found. When the number of entering and issuing
ridges is unequal, the difficulty is increased. There may, moreover, be
islands or enclosures in any particular part of the square. It therefore
seems right to look upon the squares as independent variables, in the
sense that when the surrounding conditions are alone taken into account,
the ridges within their limits may either run in the observed way or in a
different way, the chance of these two contrasted events being taken (for
safety's sake) as approximately equal.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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