In comparing finger prints which are alike in their general pattern, it
may well happen that the proportions of the patterns differ; one may be
that of a slender boy, the other that of a man whose fingers have been
broadened or deformed by ill-usage. It is therefore requisite to imagine
that only one of the prints is divided into exact squares, and to suppose
that a reticulation has been drawn over the other, in which each mesh
included the corresponding parts of the former print. Frequent trials have
shown that there is no practical difficulty in actually doing this, and
it is the only way of making a fair comparison between the two.
These six-ridge-interval squares may thus be regarded as independent
units, each of which is equally liable to fall into one or other of two
alternative classes, when the surrounding conditions are alone known. The
inevitable consequence from this datum is that the chance of an exact
correspondence between two different finger prints, in each of the
six-ridge-interval squares into which they may be divided, and which are
about 24 in number, is at least as 1 to 2 multiplied into itself 24 times
(usually written 2{24}), that is as 1 to about ten thousand millions. But
we must not forget that the six-ridge square was taken in order to ensure
under-estimation, a five-ridge square would have been preferable, so the
adverse chances would in reality be enormously greater still.
It is hateful to blunder in calculations of adverse chances, by
overlooking correlations between variables, and to falsely assume them
independent, with the result that inflated estimates are made which
require to be proportionately reduced. Here, however, there seems to be
little room for such an error.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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