Flowers of the SkyProctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Science
Flowers of the Sky
Proctor, Richard A. (Richard Anthony)
Astronomy
We see, indeed, that other suns have suffered in this way, assuming
cometic downfall to be the true cause of stellar outbursts. There are so
many millions of suns, however, in the region of space to which
telescopic survey extends that the occurrence of ten or twelve such
outbursts in the course of four or five centuries need not be regarded
as implying any serious danger. Moreover, all the suns which have thus
suffered lie within a particular region of the heavens,--viz., in the
Milky Way, and in that half of the Milky Way which is most irregular,
one may almost say _ragged_, in structure. (With one exception--the star
in the Northern Crown, which, nevertheless, lies on a faint outlying
streamer of the Milky Way not discernible to ordinary vision.) If then
our sun belongs to this region of space, the danger for him and for us
is somewhat greater than my previous argument would indicate. For, in
that case, we must compare the number of outbursts, not with the total
number of stars within telescopic range, but with the number of those
stars which lie within this particular region of space. On the other
hand, if our sun does not lie within that region of space, the danger
for him and for us is very much less; for instead of a certain small
number of accidents among his fellow suns, there have been no such
accidents, only accidents affecting other suns which must be differently
classed.
The case may be compared to the estimation of the dangers, let us say,
of travelling by ocean steamships on a particular route. If we take the
total number of accidents, for instance, to steamships travelling
between England and the United States, we should estimate the risk of
the journey as very small, the number of passengers who have lost their
lives being very small compared with the number who have made the
journey. But even this small risk is diminished if we estimate the
danger for a passenger by Cunard steamships, simply because no passenger
has yet lost his life through accident to one of these Cunard vessels.
So in the case of our sun, the danger of an outburst such as has
affected the stars in the Northern Crown and Cygnus is small enough when
we estimate it by comparing the number of such accidents with the total
number of stars, but vanishes almost into nothingness when we note that
no insulated star like our sun seems hitherto to have undergone one of
these tremendous catastrophes.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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