Some five-and-twenty years have now elapsed since my lamented friend
and colleague, James Croll, published his well-known physical theory of
the Glacial period. That theory, as you all know, has been frequently
criticised by physicists and others, to whose objections Croll made
a final reply in his _Climate and Cosmology_. In that work he has
successfully defended his views, and even added considerably to the
strength of his general argument. I am not aware that since then any
serious objections to Croll's theory have appeared. The only one indeed
that seems to have attracted attention is that which has been urged
especially by certain American geologists. Their belief is that the
close of the Glacial period must have taken place at a much more recent
date than Croll has inferred. And this belief of theirs is based upon
various estimates which have been made as to the time required for the
erosion of valleys and the accumulation of alluvial deposits since the
Glacial period. Thus, according to Mr. Gilbert, the post-glacial gorge
of Niagara, at the present rate of erosion, must have been excavated
within 7000 years; while Mr. Winchell, from similar measurements of
the post-glacial erosion of the Falls of St. Anthony, concludes that
8000 years have elapsed since the close of the Ice Age. I might cite
a number of similar estimates that tend to show that since the close
of the Glacial period only 7000 or 10,000 years have elapsed. What
will archæologists say to this conclusion? We know that Egypt was
already occupied by a civilised people nearly 6000 years ago, and
their marvellously advanced civilisation at that time presupposes,
according to Egyptologists, many thousands of years of development. Are
we, then, prepared to admit that the close of the Ice Age coincided
with the dawn of Egyptian civilisation? But all American observers are
not so parsimonious with regard to post-glacial time. Thus Professor
Spencer has given the age of the Falls of Niagara as 24,000 years, and
he informed me recently that this does not represent half of the time
since the formation of the third great series of glacial deposits of
the Canadian uplands. In our own Continent similar estimates have been
based on the rate of erosion of river-valleys, the rate of accumulation
of alluvial deposits, of peat-bogs, of stalagmite in caves, and what
not, with results that, to say the least, are rather discordant. The
fact is that all such measurements and estimates, however carefully
conducted and cautiously made, are in the nature of things unreliable.
We are insufficiently acquainted with all the factors of the problem
to be solved, and I cannot therefore agree with those who attribute
much weight to conclusions based on such uncertain data. Dr. Croll's
theory may eventually be modified, but I feel sure that it will not be
overturned by the inconclusive and unsatisfactory estimates to which I
have referred. Moreover, opponents of that theory may be reminded that
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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