Harper's Pictorial Library of the World War, Volume XII : $b The Great Results of the War
History
Harper's Pictorial Library of the World War, Volume XII : $b The Great Results of the War
League of Nations; Treaty of Versailles (1919 June 28); World War, 1914-1918; World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspects; World War, 1914-1918 -- Finance
The conspicuous feature of these curves is their great irregularity.
Practically never are they for any length of time at all horizontal.
Sometimes, even in time of peace, a variation of over 10 per cent. is
shown in one year. The curve for the U. S. shows, at the time of the
Civil War, a very considerable rise (especially as measured in terms of
paper), followed by a decline beginning in 1873 and continuing to 1896.
The fall in the first part of this period was accentuated by the return
from a paper to a gold standard. From an index number of 100 in 1873,
the index number dropped to 51 in 1896. This decline resulted
politically in the famous Bryan "Free Silver" campaign.
[Illustration: Figure 2
Trend of Prices Before and After the Great Wars of History]
Since that time, however, the course of prices has been steadily upward.
Between 1896 and the outbreak of the war, the index number of the U. S.
rose about 50 per cent. Substantially the same increase took place in
Canada, while in the United Kingdom there was a rise of 35 per cent.
This rise before the war amounted, in the United States, to about
one-fifth of one per cent. per month. During the war, however, the rise
amounted in this country to 1½ per cent. per month, and abroad to much
more--in Germany and Austria to 3 per cent. per month, and in Russia,
apparently, to 4 or 5 per cent. per month. In the light of the
excitement caused up to 1914 by the comparatively moderate increase in
this country, we can better understand the Russian economic unrest when
a far steeper ascent of prices got under way.
The total effect can be summed up as follows: between 1914, before the
war, and November, 1918, the price level in this country (as indicated
by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics retail food index
number) rose 79 per cent.; that in England (according to the _Statist_
index number), 133 per cent.; that in France, approximately 140 per
cent.; that in western Europe probably at least three-fold; and in
Russia perhaps ten or twenty-fold.
The price level of the United States today is over three-fold that of
1896. Expressing the same fact in terms of the purchasing power of
money, our dollar of today is worth only 30 cents of the money in 1896,
so that as contrasted with the dollar of 1896 our dollar literally
"looks like thirty cents."
COMMENTS ON FIGURE 2
Now it is a common belief, and one which seems to be borne out by the
present situation, that war raises prices whereas peace lowers them. The
matter is, however, not so simple. Each case must be considered on its
own merits. Figure 2 shows price curves for the various wars.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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