Its business is to predict the weather as nearly as it can. Most persons
are of the opinion that it can do this accurately. At any rate, they
blame the observers very severely when, owing to local causes, their
predictions, intended to cover a large territory, are not fulfilled to
the letter. If they predict showers followed by clearing weather in
eastern New York, and it does not clear up in New York city till nine
o'clock in the evening, inhabitants of the metropolis are very likely to
say unkind things about the observers. They forget that the chief
objects of this service are to furnish valuable information to mariners,
to the great rice and cotton growers of the South, to the farmers, and
to all other persons upon whose prosperity the weather has a potent
influence. The fact that John Smith is caught in an unexpected rain and
gets his new hat spoiled is not so important as the sailing of a ship,
laden with valuable freight, into the teeth of a howling hurricane, of
which she might have been warned. The government spends a good deal of
money on this service. It costs $5000 to fit out a station, and the
yearly allowance for incidentals alone is $500. This is exclusive of the
pay of observers and the cost of telegraphing. And there are 182 of
these stations at work now.
Twice a day, at 8 A.M. and at 8 P.M., the observations of the weather
conditions are taken; and they are immediately telegraphed, in a cipher
devised for the purpose, to Washington, at the headquarters. There the
facts contained in the reports from the different parts of the country
are collated, and the probabilities deduced from them. The bulletins
which are printed in the newspapers are sent out, and also weather maps.
On these maps are printed lines showing the areas over which certain
variations of the barometer exist, and other lines showing the changes
in temperature. If you understand the manner in which American weather
operates, you can take these maps every day and make pretty good
predictions yourself.
As I have said, it is from the local observations that the general
predictions are made. In the city of New York the weather is studied
away up on top of the tall building of the Manhattan Life-insurance
Company. The Local Forecast Observer--that's his official title--is
E. B. Dunn, who, when this was an army service, was Sergeant Dunn. Now
the irreverent newspapers call him "Farmer" Dunn. What he does in his
office is what all the other observers throughout the country do in
theirs. I am going to describe his methods as he described them to me,
and then you'll know all about it.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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